Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Picks – 10/8/2024

• Date: October 8, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Michael King - Padres

Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game 3 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game 3 Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 3 of their National League Division Series matchup on October 8, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Padres, playing at home in Petco Park, are slight favorites with a -155 moneyline, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. The Dodgers, despite being the away team, bring the best offense in MLB, and their recent form suggests they could make things interesting.

On the mound, the Padres are set to start Michael King, who ranks as the 19th best pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. King's 2.95 ERA is excellent, though his 3.50 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved in his success this season. The projections indicate he may face challenges, with an expected 4.6 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed. However, King's ability to strike out batters and limit walks could be crucial against a potent Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler, who has had a tough season with a 5.38 ERA. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could rebound. Despite the projections painting a grim picture for Buehler, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and 4.7 hits, his potential to outperform expectations remains.

Offensively, the Padres boast the 6th best lineup, leading MLB in batting average and ranking 8th in home runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been red-hot, with a .643 batting average and three home runs over the last week. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are top-ranked in offense, 3rd in home runs, and have a strong bullpen, setting up a classic showdown between powerhouses.

With both teams having elite bullpens, the game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest. The Padres' projected team total of 4.11 runs gives them a slight edge, but the Dodgers, with their explosive offense, could easily turn the tables. As the series unfolds, every pitch and swing will be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order profiles as the strongest of the day in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Los Angeles's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Higashioka, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+20.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 100 games (+20.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+14.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game 3 Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.65 vs San Diego Padres 4.86

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.