Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 Betting Pick & Preview – 10/18/2024

• Date: October 18, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers
  • David Peterson - Mets

Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 5 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 5 Betting Preview

As the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers gear up for Game 5 of their series on October 18, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League League Championship matchup at Citi Field, as the Mets face elimination down 3-1. The Dodgers, currently the top-ranked offense in MLB, are looking to capitalize on their power against a Mets team that boasts the 4th-best home run tally. Despite the Mets' solid offensive ranking, they enter as underdogs with an implied win probability of 44% against the Dodgers' 56%.

On the mound, New York's David Peterson faces a daunting task against the Dodgers' lineup. Peterson's 2.90 ERA this season has been excellent, but his 4.10 xFIP raises questions about sustainability. His projected performance—4.2 innings with 2.0 earned runs—suggests an average outing, a challenge when facing a Dodgers lineup that ranks 1st in home runs. However, his high groundball rate could neutralize some of the Dodgers' power, potentially giving him a slight edge.

Los Angeles counters with Jack Flaherty, whose 3.17 ERA and #69 ranking among MLB pitchers reflect his above-average season. Flaherty's control, with a 5.9% walk rate, matches well against the Mets' patient approach at the plate, potentially limiting their strength in drawing walks. Projections indicate Flaherty might allow 2.0 earned runs across 5.0 innings, helping to maintain the Dodgers' edge.

Both bullpens are highly ranked, with the Dodgers' relief corps sitting at 3rd and the Mets at 10th. These rankings could play a critical role should the starters falter early. Offensively, Max Muncy has been a standout for the Dodgers recently, with a .417 average and 1.583 OPS over the last week, while Mark Vientos has been the Mets' best hitter, boasting a .278 average and .889 OPS during the same period.

As the series continues, the Mets will need to lean on their power to challenge the Dodgers' pitching, while the Dodgers aim to leverage their overall offensive prowess to maintain their Championship aspirations.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Jack Flaherty has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

New York's #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

J.D. Martinez is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 10th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 122 games (+20.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 100 games (+25.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.95 Units / 46% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 5 Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.55 vs New York Mets 3.53

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