Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies face off on September 28, 2024, the teams are heading in different directions this season. The Dodgers, with a stellar 96-64 record, are in prime position for the playoffs, while the Rockies, sitting at 61-99, have endured a challenging year. The Dodgers' recent dominance was on display as they secured a victory in the first game of the series against Colorado.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers' projected starter, has been a force on the mound, boasting a 2.96 ERA. Ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB, Yamamoto's high strikeout rate (28.3%) could exploit the Rockies' offense, which ranks 2nd in strikeouts. Meanwhile, Antonio Senzatela takes the mound for the Rockies. Though his ERA of 3.38 appears promising, his xFIP of 5.37 suggests he's been fortunate, and his performance could regress.

Offensively, the Dodgers are potent, ranking 2nd in MLB for both overall offense and home runs, while the Rockies sit at 17th. Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers' standout hitter this past week, has been on a tear, batting .625 with two home runs and five stolen bases. For the Rockies, Charlie Blackmon has been their bright spot, hitting .400 with two home runs over the last week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rockies a 36% chance to pull off an upset, slightly higher than the betting market suggests. With a projected 4.99 runs for the Rockies against the Dodgers' 7.19, there's potential value in betting on Colorado as an underdog. As these division rivals clash, the Dodgers will look to continue their streak, while the Rockies aim for a surprise win at Coors Field.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Given the 0.57 discrepancy between Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 10.48 K/9 and his 9.91 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform worse going forward.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Will Smith is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the 3rd-best among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Ezequiel Tovar's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 88.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 75.7-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

When assessing his home run ability, Michael Toglia ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 69 games at home (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 79 games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games (+17.10 Units / 155% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 7.57 vs Colorado Rockies 5.09

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