Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 2, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive National League West. The Dodgers currently hold a solid record of 82-55, while the Diamondbacks are right behind at 77-60. With the postseason looming, every game carries significant weight, particularly in a matchup that features two of the league’s best offenses.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks crushed the Dodgers and will look for another division win today. The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been decent this season with a 2-0 record, despite a 5.06 ERA. His xFIP of 4.09 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, and he’ll need to harness that luck against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in walks. Rodriguez's low walk rate (5.6 BB%) could work to his advantage, potentially neutralizing the Dodgers' strengths.

On the other side, the Dodgers will send out Jack Flaherty, who boasts a 3.07 ERA and a solid 10-6 record. Flaherty has been an effective starter, projecting to pitch 5.4 innings and allowing 2.8 earned runs on average. However, he’s also vulnerable to giving up hits, projected to allow 5.4 today, which could play into the hands of the Diamondbacks’ potent offense, ranked 2nd in MLB.

The projections suggest that Arizona’s offense, led recently by Corbin Carroll, could exploit Flaherty’s weaknesses. With an average of 3.96 runs implied for the Diamondbacks, they remain an underdog at +120 on the moneyline. With both teams vying for supremacy in the division, the stakes couldn't be higher in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Jack Flaherty has gone to his slider 5.6% more often this season (30.4%) than he did last season (24.8%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Tommy Edman has struggled with his Barrel%; his 5.1% rate last year has dropped to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers ranks them as the #5 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez's 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 22nd percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Joc Pederson has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 92.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pavin Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 95 games (+22.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games (+9.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+16.30 Units / 48% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.4 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.85

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.