Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 1, 2024, this National League West matchup carries significant weight in the playoff race. The Diamondbacks, with a record of 76-60, are enjoying a solid season but remain in a challenging battle for a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are thriving at 82-54, positioning themselves as one of the league's top contenders.

In their last outing, the Dodgers secured a victory over the Diamondbacks, intensifying the stakes for today’s game. The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who ranks as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. While Pfaadt has had an average year with a 4.31 ERA, he has shown signs of being unlucky, as evidenced by his lower 3.69 xFIP. However, he is expected to struggle today, projecting to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs while pitching just 5.0 innings.

On the mound for the Dodgers is Justin Wrobleski, whose performance has been less than stellar. With a 4.68 ERA and a troubling 6.45 FIP, Wrobleski might find it challenging against a potent Diamondbacks offense ranked 2nd overall in the league. Over the past week, Corbin Carroll has been on fire for Arizona, hitting .348 with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs, providing a significant boost to the team's offensive output.

Despite the projections suggesting a close contest, the Diamondbacks have a favorable team total of 4.55 runs, which could lead to an upset if Pfaadt manages to outshine expectations against Wrobleski's struggling form.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Over his previous 3 GS, Justin Wrobleski has seen a notable decline in his fastball velocity: from 94.5 mph over the whole season to 93.5 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Miguel Rojas's true offensive talent to be a .282, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .039 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .321 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Tallying 17.8 outs per start this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt falls in the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Josh Bell has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 71 games (+21.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 45 games (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.29 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.73

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