Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 7/9/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in a highly anticipated National League matchup on July 9, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 58-32 record and the Dodgers close behind at 55-36. The Phillies currently hold a slight edge in the standings, and this series opener could have significant playoff implications.

The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the mound. Wheeler, ranked as the #9 starting pitcher by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has been elite this season with a 2.74 ERA and a 9-4 record over 18 starts. However, his 3.49 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. Wheeler is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and strike out 6.5 batters over 5.8 innings, which should put the Phillies in a good position.

Facing Wheeler will be Bobby Miller for the Dodgers. Miller has struggled with a 6.12 ERA over six starts, but his 4.31 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and could improve. He is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs and strike out 4.6 batters over 5.3 innings. However, Miller's high walk rate (13.8 BB%) could be problematic against a patient Phillies offense that ranks 5th in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Dodgers have the edge, ranking 1st in MLB. They are particularly powerful, sitting 3rd in home runs. Will Smith has been on fire over the last week, hitting .300 with a 1.367 OPS, 4 home runs, and 8 runs scored in just five games.

The Phillies, however, aren't far behind, ranking 5th overall in offense. They excel in batting average (3rd) and stolen bases (4th). Trea Turner has been their standout recently, batting .360 with a 1.225 OPS and 4 home runs over the last seven games.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Phillies ranked 3rd and the Dodgers 7th. Given these factors, the Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Dodgers, underdogs with a +120 moneyline, have a 44% implied win probability.

The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting a high-scoring affair. With Wheeler's elite status and the Phillies' potent lineup, they appear to have a slight edge in this critical series opener.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bobby Miller has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 6.6% less often this year (45.3%) than he did last year (51.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In the last week, Chris Taylor's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.5% up to 20%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among all starters, Zack Wheeler's fastball spin rate of 2423 rpm grades out in the 81st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Alec Bohm's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 90.2-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 87.4-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 75 games (+19.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.59 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.94

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