Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Pick For 5/29/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 29, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 29, 2024, at Citi Field. As the home team, the Mets will have the advantage of playing in front of their fans. However, they are currently enduring a tough season with a record of 22-32, while the Dodgers are thriving with a record of 35-22.

Both teams will rely on their starting left-handed pitchers to set the tone for the game. The Mets are projected to start David Peterson, who ranks as the 121st best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, James Paxton will take the mound for the Dodgers. While he has a perfect 5-0 win/loss record this season with an impressive ERA of 3.49, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky and could expect a decline in performance going forward.

Despite the Mets' offensive struggles, their best hitter over the last seven games has been Mark Vientos, who has recorded impressive stats, including a .300 batting average and a 1.117 OPS. On the other side, the Dodgers' standout performer in recent games has been Teoscar Hernandez, with a .450 batting average and a 1.360 OPS over the past week.

Both teams have had their share of strengths and weaknesses this season. The Dodgers have a solid bullpen, ranking 19th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets bullpen ranks at the 23rd spot.

According to the current odds, the Mets are the underdogs with a moneyline set at +105, implying a 47% win probability. The Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -125, suggesting a 53% win probability. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimate a 50% win probability for both teams, indicating a close game.

Based on the projections, the Mets have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs, while the Dodgers have a higher implied team total of 4.40 runs. THE BAT X projects the Mets to score 4.73 runs on average in this game, while the Dodgers are projected to score 4.96 runs.

As the game approaches, the Mets will look to overcome their struggles and capitalize on their home field advantage. The Dodgers aim to maintain their impressive season and continue their dominance. With the odds and projections pointing to a close contest, fans can expect an exciting matchup between these two National League rivals.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, James Paxton should be in good shape being matched up with 7 batters in the projected offense of the opposite hand in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 61% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+8.80 Units / 30% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.04 vs New York Mets 4.63

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