Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels Pick & Prediction – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and the Los Angeles Dodgers face off on September 4, 2024, in a highly anticipated interleague matchup at Angel Stadium. The Angels, sitting at 57-81 this season, have struggled significantly and are not in contention for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been in excellent form with an 84-55 record, firmly positioned in the playoff race. In their last meeting, the Dodgers won decisively in extra innings, underscoring the current disparity between these teams.

Griffin Canning is projected to take the mound for the Angels, bringing a challenging season to the hill with a 4-12 record and a 5.19 ERA. Canning has struggled to find consistency, projected to pitch 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 3.4 earned runs. His performance has been indicative of a team that ranks 26th in MLB, with an offense that has been underwhelming this year.

On the other side, Bobby Miller is set to start for the Dodgers. While his 2-3 record and ERA of 7.25 reflect a below-average season, projections suggest he may be due for some better luck, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.56. Miller is expected to log about 5.0 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs, which should keep the Dodgers competitive against an Angels lineup that has been inconsistent.

Despite being underdogs, there may be value in betting on the Angels. The leading MLB projection system suggests they could exceed expectations with a projected average of 5.10 runs in this game. In contrast, the Dodgers are anticipated to put up 6.44 runs, highlighting their offensive prowess, ranked 3rd in the league for home runs. Given the circumstances, the Angels might just surprise the odds in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tallying 13.4 outs per game per started this year on average, Bobby Miller checks in at the 2nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 95.2-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers makes them the #4 offense in the majors this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has relied on his change-up 5.6% more often this season (27.4%) than he did last year (21.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Drury's true offensive talent to be a .300, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .084 gap between that mark and his actual .216 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

In today's game, Zach Neto is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (81st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 67 games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 73% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.6 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.12

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.