Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros Pick For 7/28/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • River Ryan - Dodgers
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to clash in the final game of their three-game series at Minute Maid Park on July 28, 2024. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Astros boasting a 55-49 record and the Dodgers at 62-44. This interleague matchup features two potent offenses and struggling pitchers, making for an intriguing contest.

Houston's offense ranks 2nd in MLB in team batting average and 9th in home runs, showcasing their ability to hit for both average and power. Yordan Alvarez has been the standout for the Astros over the past week, hitting .409 with a 1.277 OPS, including 9 hits and 1 home run in six games. The Astros will look to continue their offensive prowess against Dodgers' starter River Ryan, who projects to allow 4.4 hits and 1.5 walks over 4.4 innings, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

The Dodgers' offense isn't far behind, ranking 6th in team batting average and 3rd in home runs. Shohei Ohtani has been on fire recently, batting .360 with a 1.324 OPS, 9 hits, and 3 home runs in the past seven games. The Dodgers will face Astros' starter Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled this season. Arrighetti, ranked 192nd out of approximately 350 starting pitchers, projects to allow 4.5 hits and 2.1 walks over 4.9 innings.

The pitching matchup is less impressive, with both starters projected to pitch fewer than five innings and allow over two earned runs each. This sets the stage for a high-scoring game, reflected in the game's total of 9.0 runs. Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Astros having a slight edge with a moneyline of -120, translating to a 52% implied win probability.

Given the Astros' strong offensive rankings and home-field advantage, they appear to have a slight upper hand in this matchup. However, with both teams' offenses performing well and the pitchers struggling, this game could go either way, making it a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects River Ryan to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Gavin Lux is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Cavan Biggio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 8th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (58.4% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Yordan Alvarez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 100.2-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 4th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 46 games (+17.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+2.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 39 games (+14.65 Units / 38% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.3 vs Houston Astros 4.43

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