Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 7/14/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Dodgers
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers are set for the third game of their interleague series on July 14, 2024, at Comerica Park. The Tigers, who sit at 46-50 and are having a below-average season, will look to build on their 11-9 victory over the Dodgers from the previous day. Despite the win, the Tigers remain underdogs with a current moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%.

The Tigers will send Beau Brieske to the mound. Brieske, a right-handed pitcher, has been solid out of the bullpen this season with a 3.52 ERA and a 2.84 FIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. However, he is projected to pitch only 2.0 innings today, which could put additional pressure on Detroit's #9 ranked bullpen. Brieske's high flyball rate (37% FB) could be a concern against the powerful Dodgers lineup, which ranks 3rd in home runs this season.

On the other side, the Dodgers, with a 56-40 record, are having a great season and boast the best offense in MLB. Ryan Yarbrough, a left-handed pitcher, will start for Los Angeles. Yarbrough's 3.66 ERA masks his underlying struggles, as indicated by his 5.46 xFIP. He is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs over 4.3 innings, which is not ideal considering the Tigers' offense ranks 25th overall but is coming off a high-scoring game.

Offensively, the Tigers' best hitter, Riley Greene, has been consistent with a .271 batting average and 17 home runs this season. Recently, Andy Ibanez has been hot, posting a 1.518 OPS over the last week. For the Dodgers, Shohei Ohtani continues to dominate with a .314 batting average and 29 home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a 51% win probability, indicating potential value in betting on Detroit as an underdog. The projections suggest a close game, with the Dodgers expected to score 4.87 runs and the Tigers 4.72 runs. Given the Tigers' recent win and the struggles of Yarbrough, Detroit might be worth considering for those looking for an edge in today's matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Detroit Tigers have 7 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Yarbrough today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the past week's worth of games, Freddie Freeman's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers batters jointly rank among the best in baseball this year (5th-) in regard to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

There has been a decrease in Gio Urshela's average exit velocity this year, from 87.5 mph last year to 85.5 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Zach McKinstry is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.85 Units / 66% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 49% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5 vs Detroit Tigers 4.55

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