Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox Pick & Prediction – 6/26/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On June 26, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their series. The White Sox have struggled mightily this season, holding a dismal 21-60 record, while the Dodgers are enjoying a stellar campaign at 50-31. The White Sox's recent poor form contrasts sharply with the Dodgers' dominance, making this matchup particularly intriguing for bettors.

The pitching duel features Erick Fedde for the White Sox and Gavin Stone for the Dodgers. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Fedde ranks as the 71st-best starting pitcher in the league, which is above average. Fedde has posted a strong 3.09 ERA this year, but his 3.64 SIERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. He's projected to allow 2.9 earned runs and strike out 4.7 batters over 5.5 innings, which is below average.

On the other side, Stone is having a great season with an 8-2 record and a 3.04 ERA. However, his 4.06 xFIP indicates some luck as well. Stone is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and strike out 4.5 batters over 5.4 innings, which also points to below-average strikeout potential.

The White Sox offense ranks dead last in MLB, struggling in batting average (30th), home runs (26th), and overall offensive production (30th). In stark contrast, the Dodgers boast the 1st-best offense, ranking 4th in batting average and 3rd in home runs. This gives the Dodgers a significant edge at the plate.

Both teams have contrasting bullpens as well. The White Sox bullpen ranks 29th, reflecting their overall struggles, while the Dodgers bullpen is 6th, providing stability in late-game situations.

Given these factors, the Dodgers are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -185, implying a 63% win probability. The White Sox, with a moneyline of +160, have a 37% implied win probability. The Dodgers' potent lineup and solid bullpen make them the clear choice for bettors looking to capitalize on this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

When assessing his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 2nd-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Compared to league average, Erick Fedde has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 5.2 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Batting from the same side that Gavin Stone throws from, Tommy Pham meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Lenyn Sosa has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.05 Units / 45% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.37 vs Chicago White Sox 4.29

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