Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox Pick For 6/24/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 24, 2024, fans can expect a fascinating matchup despite the teams' contrasting seasons. The White Sox are struggling with a dismal 21-58 record, while the Dodgers are soaring at 48-31. This interleague clash marks the first game of the series and will see two left-handed pitchers, Garrett Crochet and James Paxton, face off.

Garrett Crochet, despite the White Sox's overall woes, has been a bright spot. Ranked 8th in THE BAT X's power rankings—an elite status among about 350 starting pitchers—Crochet boasts a solid 3.25 ERA and an impressive 2.39 xFIP, indicating he's been a bit unlucky and could be even better moving forward. On the other hand, James Paxton, despite his 7-1 record, has been fortunate. His 3.65 ERA belies a concerning 5.16 xFIP, suggesting regression is on the horizon.

The White Sox's offense ranks 30th in MLB across various metrics, including team batting average and overall offensive power, which does not bode well against the Dodgers. Conversely, Los Angeles boasts the 1st-ranked offense, with Shohei Ohtani leading the charge. Ohtani, batting .321 with 23 home runs and a 1.031 OPS, has been particularly hot, posting a .458 average and 1.650 OPS over the past week.

While the Dodgers are favored with a -145 moneyline and a 57% implied win probability, THE BAT X sees this as a closer contest, projecting a 50% win probability for both teams. This discrepancy suggests potential value in betting on the White Sox, especially given Crochet's elite status and the Dodgers' possible struggles against his control. Moreover, Paxton's high walk rate might not be as detrimental against the free-swinging White Sox.

In their last games, the White Sox fell to the Tigers 11-2, while the Dodgers triumphed over the Angels 7-2. Despite Chicago's recent loss and their status as underdogs, this game might be tighter than expected. Keep an eye on how these pitching matchups unfold and whether Crochet can stymie the potent Dodgers lineup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Given his large reverse platoon split, James Paxton should be in good shape facing 9 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Andy Pages is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Shohei Ohtani has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Corey Julks is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Korey Lee, Luis Robert, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+3.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+4.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Garrett Crochet has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 68% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.75 vs Chicago White Sox 4.52

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