Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks 6/15/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
  • Keaton Winn - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants host the Los Angeles Angels at Oracle Park on June 15, 2024, for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams find themselves in different states of contention this season. The Giants are having an average year with a 34-36 record, while the Angels are struggling mightily at 27-42. This contrast in performance is set up for an intriguing matchup, especially with differing stakes for each team.

Taking the mound for the Giants will be right-hander Keaton Winn, who has experienced a tough season so far with a 3-7 record and a 6.94 ERA. However, his 3.93 xFIP suggests he has been quite unlucky and might be poised for better outings ahead. On the other side, the Angels will counter with lefty Patrick Sandoval, who holds a 2-8 record and a 5.23 ERA. Like Winn, Sandoval's 3.85 xFIP indicates he has pitched better than his ERA implies.

San Francisco’s bullpen could be a key factor in this game. Ranked 1st in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, their relievers have been nothing short of spectacular this season. Conversely, the Angels' bullpen has been one of their weak points, sitting at 29th. This disparity might tilt the balance in favor of the Giants should the game come down to bullpen work.

Offensively, the Giants rank 15th overall in underlying talent, with a notable weak spot in home runs (21st) and stolen bases (30th). Meanwhile, the Angels sport the 16th-best offense, bolstered by their high ranks in home runs (8th) and stolen bases (8th). Recent performances highlight Mike Yastrzemski for the Giants with a .286 average and 1.126 OPS over the last 7 games, while Logan O'Hoppe has been on fire for the Angels, hitting .563 with an astonishing 1.588 OPS over the last week.

Both teams have clear strengths and weaknesses, but San Francisco appears to hold a slight edge according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 58% chance of winning. The Giants are also the favorites at the sportsbooks with a moneyline of -145, implying a win probability of 57%.

This game promises to be a fascinating clash between an Angels team desperate to turn their season around and a Giants squad looking to get back to .500. The edge in pitching and bullpen strength clearly leans towards San Francisco, making them the likely favorite to come out on top in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Patrick Sandoval has utilized his four-seam fastball 8.1% less often this season (17.4%) than he did last year (25.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Luis Rengifo are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Keaton Winn.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Taylor Ward has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Keaton Winn's 95-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 89th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants have done a weak job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 7.7° angle is among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (#30 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 40% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.99 vs San Francisco Giants 4.26

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