Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins host the Los Angeles Angels on September 10, 2024, they enter this matchup after a disappointing 6-2 loss to the Angels the previous day, a game that marked the first in this series. With a record of 76-68, the Twins are enjoying an above-average season and currently sit in a competitive position in the American League, while the Angels languish at 60-84, having struggled significantly throughout the year.

On the mound for the Twins will be Pablo Lopez, who stands as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite having an ERA of 4.05 this season, Lopez's 3.29 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and he projects to deliver a solid performance today, with an average of 5.8 innings pitched and only 2.1 earned runs allowed. His recent start saw him complete 7 innings with 3 earned runs and 9 strikeouts, demonstrating his capability to dominate opposing lineups.

Conversely, Griffin Canning takes the hill for the Angels. While he pitched well in his last outing, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run, his overall numbers are troubling, with a 5.02 ERA and a projected performance that indicates he could struggle against a Twins lineup that ranks 11th in MLB in batting average. The Twins are expected to capitalize on Canning's weaknesses, as projections indicate a high team total of 4.83 runs for today’s game.

Overall, while the Twins are looking to bounce back from their previous loss, they have the edge in this matchup, bolstered by a strong starting pitcher and a robust offense against an Angels team that has consistently underperformed this season.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has gone to his change-up 5.4% more often this year (27.2%) than he did last year (21.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Drury's true offensive skill to be a .298, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .081 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .217 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Zach Neto pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (95.5 mph) has been significantly faster than than his seasonal rate (94.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ryan Jeffers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (DaShawn Keirsey, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+5.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Edouard Julien has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+14.95 Units / 41% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.83 vs Minnesota Twins 5.14

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.