Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Pick & Preview – 5/20/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reid Detmers - Angels
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League West matchup, the Houston Astros will host the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park on May 20, 2024. The Astros, with a record of 21-26, are having a tough season, while the struggling Angels hold a record of 18-29.

The Astros will have the home-field advantage as they face the Angels, who are currently the away team. Framber Valdez, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Astros, while the Angels will likely start Reid Detmers, also a lefty. Valdez is considered the #23 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while Detmers ranks #86.

Valdez has started six games this season, boasting a 3-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.95. However, his 3.56 xERA (Expected ERA) suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges going forward. Detmers, on the other hand, has started nine games, with a 3-4 record and an ERA of 5.19. His 3.65 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in upcoming games.

The Astros' offense has been strong this season, ranking as the 5th best in MLB. They have showcased their power with a 9th ranking in team home runs. In contrast, the Angels' offense ranks 12th in MLB, excelling in home runs but struggling in stolen bases, where they rank 27th. However, the Angels possess a potent lineup, as evidenced by their 3rd place ranking in home runs.

Defensively, the Astros have an average bullpen ranking of 11th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Angels' bullpen ranks last at 30th. This could give the Astros an advantage as the game progresses.

Based on the current odds, the Astros are the favorite to win with a moneyline of -200 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Angels, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +170 and an implied win probability of 36%. The Astros also have a high implied team total of 4.93 runs, while the Angels have a lower implied team total of 3.57 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tallying 93.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Reid Detmers falls in the 84th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nolan Schanuel's quickness has dropped off this season. His 26.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.12 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has added a slider to his repertoire this season and has thrown it 8.6% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (13.4) may lead us to conclude that Jake Meyers has been lucky since the start of last season with his 19.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 games (+24.70 Units / 103% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.64 vs Houston Astros 5.19

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