Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 7/20/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels, both struggling through a disappointing season, face off again on July 20, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum. The Athletics, holding a 38-61 record, are anchored at the bottom of the American League West, while the Angels aren’t faring much better at 41-56. Although neither team is contending for a playoff berth, there's still pride on the line in this divisional clash.

The Athletics dominated the Angels with a 13-3 victory in their last game on July 19. Remarkably, Oakland's offense, which ranks 25th overall this season, exploded with a power display that's been their saving grace, given that they rank 4th in MLB in home runs.

Mitch Spence takes the mound for the Athletics. Despite an average season with a 4.75 ERA and 5-6 Win/Loss record, Spence has shown underlying potential with a 3.98 xFIP, suggesting he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve. However, his recent outing was rough, allowing six earned runs in just four innings.

Jack Kochanowicz will start for the Angels, making just his second start of the year. His first start was a struggle, allowing four earned runs over three innings. With a sky-high 12.00 ERA and low strikeout rate (6.3% K%), Kochanowicz faces an Athletics team that strikes out frequently (2nd most in MLB), which might work in his favor.

Despite Oakland's overall poor offensive stats, they’ve shown an ability to hit the long ball, which could be a key factor against Kochanowicz, who’s a high-groundball pitcher. On the other hand, the Angels’ offense ranks 23rd, and while they can steal bases effectively (#7 in MLB), their overall production has been lackluster.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Oakland has a 53% win probability for this game. Betting markets also view this game as tight, with the Athletics' implied win probability at 55%. Given the recent thrashing they handed the Angels and Spence’s potential for a rebound, Oakland seems to have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Given that flyball hitters hold a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Jack Kochanowicz and his 50.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this outing facing 1 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Anthony Rendon has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 82.5-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mitch Spence must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary pitches a lot this year: 86.5% of the time, ranking in the 99th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Seth Brown who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 92 games (+6.55 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 away games (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Logan O'Hoppe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+8.20 Units / 205% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.65 vs Oakland Athletics 4.64

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