Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals on September 10, 2024, fans can expect a crucial matchup as both teams vie for playoff positioning. The Yankees currently sit at 83-61, enjoying a strong season, while the Royals' record of 79-66 has them in the mix for a Wild Card spot. In fact, these two teams faced off just yesterday, with the Yankees coming out on top 10-4, a clear indication of their offensive firepower.

Starting for the Yankees is Marcus Stroman, who has had a turbulent season. With a Win/Loss record of 10-7 and an ERA of 4.03, he has struggled recently, notably giving up 5 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last outing. His peripherals suggest he may not live up to his ERA moving forward, as his xFIP sits at 4.60. Stroman’s low strikeout rate against a Royals lineup that is one of the least strikeout-prone could spell trouble for him on the mound.

For Kansas City, Seth Lugo gets the call. With an impressive 15-8 record and an exceptional 3.05 ERA, Lugo has been consistent and is projected to hold his own against the Yankees. His last start was particularly strong, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run against a tough opponent. Although the Yankees have a potent offense ranked 1st in home runs, they also rank 1st in walks, a metric where Lugo’s control—reflected in a low walk rate—may keep them in check.

The projections favor the Yankees heavily, expecting them to score an average of 5.39 runs, while Kansas City is pegged at 4.44 runs. With both teams looking to establish dominance early in this series, fans should expect an exciting clash at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has relied on his secondary offerings 6.9% more often this season (55.1%) than he did last season (48.2%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Bobby Witt Jr.'s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 92.9-mph now compared to just 90.7-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last year (90.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge's true offensive talent to be a .425, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .044 disparity between that mark and his actual .469 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

New York's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the majors: #1 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 88 games (+22.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 42 games (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.50 Units / 18% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.32 vs New York Yankees 5.33

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.