Royals vs Yankees Game 2 Prediction, Odds & Picks – 10/7/2024

• Date: October 7, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Royals vs Yankees Game 2 Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Game 2 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Game 2 Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on October 7, 2024, in the second game of their American League Division Series matchup, all eyes are on the pitching duel. The Yankees, playing at Yankee Stadium, have a slight edge with Carlos Rodon set to start. Rodon's 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA this year give the Yankees confidence, particularly as they hold a projected 59% win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

On the mound for the Royals will be Cole Ragans, whose 11-9 record and impressive 3.14 ERA add intrigue to this matchup. While Ragans has been strong this season, his projected 4.6 innings might not be enough to stifle the Yankees' 3rd-ranked offense, known for its power with a league-leading number of home runs.

The Yankees' offensive prowess is complemented by their bullpen, ranked 12th in the Power Rankings, which has been more consistent than their 18th rank based on actual performance this year. On the other hand, the Royals' bullpen is ranked 7th, outperforming expectations compared to their current season ranking.

Despite being underdogs with a 42% implied win probability, the Royals bring a balanced attack, ranking 14th overall offensively. However, their challenge will be to limit a Yankees lineup that excels at hitting the long ball. The Royals' offense will also need to contend with Rodon's high strikeout rate, facing a Yankees team that is a betting favorite at -150.

With both pitchers looking to carry their team's playoff hopes, the Royals will need to capitalize on their ability to avoid strikeouts—their lineup is the 2nd best at doing so—if they aim to even the series.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans will be at an advantage facing 7 batters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Kansas City Royals projected batting order grades out as the 2nd-worst of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Judge as the 8th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 139 games (+17.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 93 games (+11.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Hunter Renfroe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.08 vs New York Yankees 4.43

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