Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Pick & Preview – 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. The Yankees currently sit at 82-61, while the Royals are just behind at 79-65. This matchup marks the first of a series, making it crucial for both teams as they look to solidify their postseason aspirations.

In their last game, the Yankees were unable to beat the Chicago Cubs, while the Royals faced off against the Minnesota Twins and picked up a win. The Yankees are projected to start Carlos Rodon, who has had an above-average season with a 4.19 ERA and a solid 14-9 record. Rodon is known for his strikeout ability, boasting a 26.8% strikeout rate this year. However, he will face a challenge against a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB, potentially giving Kansas City an edge.

On the other side, Brady Singer is set to take the mound for the Royals. With a 3.35 ERA and a 9-10 record, Singer has been a reliable presence. He’s projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs on average, though his expected ERA of 4.38 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs, ranking 2nd with 149 this year. In contrast, the Royals sit in the middle of the pack, ranking 12th in overall offense. The Yankees' Juan Soto has been their best hitter over the last week, contributing to their powerful lineup.

With the Yankees favored at a moneyline of -180 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their offensive strengths, even as Singer’s low-walk rate may challenge their patience at the plate. This matchup promises to be an exciting start to the series, with both teams eager to gain an edge in the postseason race.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2377 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2272 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Paul DeJong is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 5th-weakest projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Kansas City Royals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Giancarlo Stanton has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.5-mph to 100.1-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees hitters jointly rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year () in regard to their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 87 games (+21.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 77 of their last 138 games (+7.74 Units / 4% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 33 games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.25 vs New York Yankees 5.12

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