Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/30/2024

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

May 30, 2024

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 30, 2024
  • Venue: Target Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Brady Singer - Royals
    • Chris Paddack - Twins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Royals 110, Twins -130
Runline: Royals 1.5 -200, Twins -1.5 170
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -120

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Kansas City Royals - 46% Kansas City Royals - 44.12%
Minnesota Twins - 54% Minnesota Twins - 55.88%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

In an American League Central matchup, the Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals at Target Field on May 30, 2024. The Twins, with a season record of 30-25, are having an above-average season. On the other hand, the Royals are enjoying a great season with a record of 35-22.

The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack, while the Royals are expected to start Brady Singer, also a right-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Paddack ranks at #102 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him an average starting pitcher. Singer, on the other hand, is ranked at #85, indicating that he is an above-average starter.

Paddack has started 10 games this year, boasting a win/loss record of 4-2. His ERA stands at 4.39, which is average, but his 3.81 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Singer has started 11 games and holds a record of 4-2 with an impressive ERA of 2.63. However, his 3.32 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in future outings.

On average, Paddack is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.9 batters. However, he is projected to allow 5.7 hits and 0.9 walks, which is concerning. Similarly, Singer is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 5.5 batters. He is projected to allow 5.7 hits and 2.0 walks, which is also worrisome.

The Twins offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB. While their team batting average ranks 22nd, their team home run ranking sits at a respectable 7th. However, their stolen bases ranking is 24th, indicating a lack of speed on the basepaths. On the other hand, the Royals offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 19th, but their team stolen bases ranking is an impressive 4th.

In terms of bullpen strength, THE BAT X considers the Twins bullpen as the 5th best in MLB, while the Royals bullpen ranks 25th. This suggests that the Twins may have an advantage in the late innings.

Looking at the betting odds, the Twins have a -130 moneyline, implying a win probability of 54%. The Royals, with a +110 moneyline, have a win probability of 46%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, but the projections favor the Twins slightly in this matchup. However, as with any baseball game, anything can happen on the field. It's sure to be an exciting contest between the Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

In his previous outing, Brady Singer was rolling and allowed 1 ER.

  • A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

MJ Melendez is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Kansas City Royals with a 21.7% underlying K%.

  • THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack projects for an average of 17 outs in today's outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Trevor Larnach's speed has fallen off this season. His 26.64 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.18 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 4th-best among all major league teams.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.80 Units / 123% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.26 vs Minnesota Twins 4.54

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+136
31% KC
-160
69% MIN

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-118
8% UN
8.5/-102
92% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-162
51% KC
-1.5/+136
49% MIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
KC
Team Stats
MIN
5.20
ERA
3.89
.260
Batting Avg Against
.235
1.41
WHIP
1.20
.304
BABIP
.293
9.1%
BB%
7.3%
20.4%
K%
25.8%
67.1%
LOB%
74.0%
.244
Batting Avg
.237
.394
SLG
.416
.695
OPS
.732
.301
OBP
.316
KC
Team Records
MIN
35-18
Home
28-20
21-27
Road
27-24
47-37
vRHP
38-34
9-8
vLHP
17-10
27-29
vs>.500
23-31
29-16
vs<.500
32-13
8-2
Last10
5-5
13-7
Last20
12-8
16-14
Last30
18-12
D. Lynch IV
C. Paddack
N/A
Innings
22.1
N/A
GS
5
N/A
W-L
1-2
N/A
ERA
4.03
N/A
K/9
8.06
N/A
BB/9
0.81
N/A
HR/9
0.00
N/A
LOB%
64.3%
N/A
HR/FB%
0.0%
N/A
FIP
1.72
N/A
xFIP
3.18

D. Lynch IV

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

C. Paddack

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 BAL
Wells N/A
W2-1 N/A
5.1
4
1
1
3
1
53-81
4/26 DET
Rodriguez N/A
W5-4 N/A
5.2
5
1
1
6
1
60-87
4/20 KC
Lynch N/A
L0-2 N/A
5
5
2
2
4
0
52-71
4/13 LAD
Kershaw N/A
L0-7 N/A
4
6
3
3
3
0
49-73
9/11 LAD
Buehler N/A
L4-5 N/A
4.2
3
4
4
4
2
56-96

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
KC MIN
KC MIN
Consensus
+110
-130
+136
-160
+110
-130
+136
-162
+110
-130
+136
-162
+114
-132
+135
-159
+110
-130
+143
-170
+105
-125
+135
-160
Open
Current
Book
KC MIN
KC MIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (+103)
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (+102)
8.5 (-124)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)