Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On August 31, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Kansas City Royals at Minute Maid Park in a pivotal matchup. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams, with the Royals currently holding a slight edge in the standings. The Astros sit at 73-62, while the Royals boast a record of 75-61, signifying both teams are having solid seasons.

The Astros are projected to start Yusei Kikuchi, who has had an average year with a 4.39 ERA and a 6-9 record. Despite his struggles, Kikuchi's advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 3.39 xFIP. He projects to pitch about 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, but he faces a Royals lineup that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB. This matchup could hinder Kikuchi’s ability to leverage his high strikeout rate (27.1 K%).

On the other side, Cole Ragans takes the mound for the Royals, standing out with a 3.28 ERA and a 10-8 record, placing him as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. Ragans also projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, but he faces an Astros offense that ranks 10th overall and 2nd in batting average. This dynamic could favor the Astros, especially given their recent offensive success, highlighted by Yordan Alvarez's impressive performance over the last week, where he has maintained a .450 batting average and a 1.400 OPS.

With the Astros favored at -140, the projections suggest they can overcome the Royals, who have struggled recently, making this matchup a crucial one for Houston as they strive to gain ground in the playoff race.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (94.9 mph) below where it was last season (96 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Paul DeJong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The underlying talent of the Kansas City Royals projected lineup today (.303 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .315 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Recording 93.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Yusei Kikuchi places him the 82nd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alex Bregman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 93.3-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 125 games (+14.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 42 games (+37.80 Units / 90% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.03 vs Houston Astros 4.1

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.