Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks 7/6/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals face off in the second game of their interleague series at Coors Field on July 6, 2024. The Rockies have struggled this season with a 31-57 record, while the Royals have been more competitive, sitting at 48-42. In yesterday's series opener, the Royals managed to secure a win, adding to the Rockies' woes.

On the mound for Colorado is Austin Gomber, a lefty who has had a tough season. Gomber's 1-5 record and 4.72 ERA have not been encouraging, and he ranks as the 184th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects him to allow 3.5 earned runs over 5.0 innings, which does not bode well for the Rockies.

Kansas City counters with Seth Lugo, who has been a bright spot for the Royals. Lugo boasts an 11-2 record with an excellent 2.17 ERA, ranking 86th among starting pitchers. However, his 3.71 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this season. The projections indicate Lugo will allow 3.3 earned runs over 5.4 innings, which is still a favorable outlook compared to Gomber.

Offensively, both teams are relatively average. The Rockies rank 18th in overall offensive talent and 13th in batting average, but their power is lacking with a 22nd place rank in home runs. The Royals, meanwhile, rank 15th in overall offense and home runs, and 13th in batting average. Kansas City also has a distinct edge in speed, ranking 7th in stolen bases.

The bullpens are another area of concern for both teams, with the Rockies ranked 23rd and the Royals 24th in the Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially with the game total set at 10.5 runs.

Brenton Doyle has been a standout for the Rockies over the last week, hitting .417 with a 1.420 OPS, while Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire for the Royals, batting .478 with a 1.437 OPS in the same span.

Given the current odds, the Rockies are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +155, implying a 38% win probability. The Royals, favored at -175, have an implied win probability of 62%. With both teams' bullpens struggling and the Rockies' starting pitcher in poor form, Kansas City seems poised to take advantage and continue their winning ways in this series.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has relied on his secondary offerings 6.3% more often this year (54.5%) than he did last year (48.2%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Colorado (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Kansas City Royals offense projects for the most runs of all teams on the slate today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among all starting pitchers, Austin Gomber's fastball velocity of 89.7 mph is in the 3rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nolan Jones is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+11.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+8.60 Units / 123% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 6.4 vs Colorado Rockies 5.65

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