Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/7/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals prepare to square off again on July 7, 2024, at Coors Field, the Rockies are coming off a surprising 3-1 victory against the Royals on July 6. Despite their dismal 32-57 record this season, Colorado managed to outplay Kansas City, who sits at 48-43 and has been having an above-average year. The Rockies, who were underdogs with a +130 Moneyline and a 42% implied win probability, defied expectations to secure the win.

For this third game in the series, the Rockies will hand the ball to Tanner Gordon, ranked as the 271st best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, making him one of the worst in MLB. Gordon is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs and 6.1 hits on average, which does not bode well for Colorado. The Rockies' bullpen, ranked 22nd, also has its struggles and could be tested early if Gordon falters.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with Brady Singer, who is ranked 76th among starters, making him an above-average pitcher. Singer has posted a solid 3.05 ERA this season, although his 3.62 xFIP suggests he might be pitching above his true talent level. Despite this, he projects to pitch 5.7 innings with 5.5 strikeouts and 3.0 earned runs, an average performance for him.

Offensively, both teams are relatively evenly matched, with the Rockies ranking 16th and the Royals 15th in overall team offense. However, Kansas City has a clear edge in speed, ranking 7th in stolen bases compared to Colorado's 18th. The Royals also hold an advantage in power, with Brenton Doyle leading the Rockies with a .275 batting average and 11 home runs, while Bobby Witt Jr. has been stellar for Kansas City, boasting a .320 average and 14 homers.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Royals a 57% chance of winning this game, aligning closely with the implied win probability of 59% from the current Moneyline of -155. Given the pitching matchup and offensive capabilities, Kansas City seems poised to bounce back from their recent loss and take control of this interleague series.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #1 HR venue among all stadiums — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last season's 89.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tanner Gordon in the 13th percentile among all SPs in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme flyball bats like Brendan Rodgers tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Michael Toglia ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 53 games (+14.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+10.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 6.07 vs Colorado Rockies 5.04

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