Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/30/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox continue their struggles this season, they face off against the Kansas City Royals in an American League Central matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 30, 2024. The White Sox, with a dismal 27-82 record, are enduring a tough season, while the Royals, sitting at 58-49, are having an above-average season and looking to strengthen their postseason aspirations.

The White Sox are projected to start Jonathan Cannon, who has had a challenging year. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Cannon ranks as the 264th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350. With a 1-5 win/loss record and a 4.43 ERA, Cannon has struggled, and his peripheral stats suggest trouble ahead. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, and striking out 3.4 batters on average, which doesn't bode well against a Royals offense ranking 13th in MLB.

The Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, whose season has been much more reliable. Wacha ranks as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a 7-6 win/loss record and a solid 3.65 ERA. While his 4.18 SIERA indicates some luck, Wacha's projection to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.6 innings should inspire confidence. His lower strikeout rate could be mitigated by facing a White Sox offense that ranks last in MLB and struggles considerably in batting average and home runs.

Offensively, the White Sox have been dismal, ranking 30th in overall offensive talent, 29th in batting average, and 28th in home runs. Their one bright spot has been Paul DeJong, who has hit .286 with a .872 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Royals' offense is more middle-of-the-pack, ranking 11th in batting average and 19th in home runs. Bobby Witt Jr. has been a standout recently, hitting .440 with 11 hits and 6 RBIs in his last six games.

Defensively, the White Sox's bullpen woes are significant, ranking 30th in MLB, whereas the Royals' bullpen is more competent, sitting at 19th. This mismatch further tips the scales in favor of Kansas City.

The betting odds reflect the disparity in performance between the two teams. The White Sox are sizable underdogs with a moneyline of +150, translating to an implied win probability of 39%. Conversely, the Royals are favorites at -175, with an implied win probability of 61%. Given their superior offense, pitching, and bullpen, the Royals are well-positioned to capitalize on their favorable matchup and continue their push for the postseason.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha has added a slider to his pitch mix this season and has utilized it 7.8% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#3-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Andrew Benintendi has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Korey Lee, Luis Robert, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 44 games (+5.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.46 vs Chicago White Sox 4.33

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