Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/13/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals are set to face off on July 13, 2024, at Fenway Park in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a 51-42 record and the Royals at 52-43. This game is the second in their series, and fans can expect a closely contested battle.

On the mound for the Red Sox will be Kutter Crawford, a right-handed pitcher who has put together a solid season with a 3.20 ERA across 19 starts. Despite his 5-7 win/loss record, Crawford is ranked as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 4.00 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters on average.

The Royals will counter with Seth Lugo, another right-handed pitcher, who has been stellar with an 11-3 record and a 2.21 ERA over 19 starts. Lugo is ranked 81st among starting pitchers but also appears to have benefited from some luck, as indicated by his 3.74 xFIP. He is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters on average.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast one of the league's most potent lineups, ranking 6th in overall offense, 8th in team batting average, and 8th in home runs. Rafael Devers has been particularly hot, hitting .348 with 3 home runs and a 1.158 OPS over the last week. The Royals' offense is more middle-of-the-pack, ranking 14th, but they do have a notable stolen base ranking at 7th. Bobby Witt Jr. has been their standout performer recently, batting .429 with 2 home runs and a 1.149 OPS over his last five games.

Both bullpens have struggled, with the Red Sox ranked 26th and the Royals 22nd by advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, as suggested by the game total of 9.0 runs set by oddsmakers.

The Red Sox enter the game with a moneyline of -130, giving them an implied win probability of 54%. Given their strong offensive capabilities and home-field advantage, Boston looks to have a slight edge in this matchup, though the Royals are not far behind with a moneyline of +110 and an implied win probability of 46%. Expect a competitive game with potential for plenty of runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has relied on his secondary offerings 6.4% more often this year (54.6%) than he did last season (48.2%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Salvador Perez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all SPs, Kutter Crawford's fastball spin rate of 2487 rpm grades out in the 91st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Wilyer Abreu has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, David Hamilton, Wilyer Abreu).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.66 vs Boston Red Sox 5.06

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