Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 5/15/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Kansas City Royals on May 15, 2024, at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a season record of 23-19, are having an above-average season, while the Royals boast an impressive record of 25-18, indicating a great season for them.

The Mariners will be playing as the home team, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start Bryan Woo, a right-handed pitcher. Woo has started one game this year and has an excellent ERA of 0.00. However, his 4.07 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Woo is ranked as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his skill on the mound.

On the other hand, the Royals will be the away team, aiming to continue their strong season. They are projected to start Alec Marsh, also a right-handed pitcher. Marsh has started six games this year and holds an impressive 3-0 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 2.53. However, his 4.21 xFIP suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance in the future.

The Mariners offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB this season, while the Royals offense ranks 16th. The Mariners have an average team batting average of 24th in MLB, but they rank 13th in team home runs. The Royals, on the other hand, have an average team batting average ranking of 19th and rank 26th in team home runs. However, the Royals excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in MLB, while the Mariners rank 18th.

In terms of bullpens, the Mariners rank 25th, while the Royals rank 20th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, which consider underlying talent regardless of year-to-date performance.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a win probability of 56%. The Royals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120, indicating a win probability of 44%.

With Woo's strong pitching and the Mariners' ability to limit power, they may have an advantage against the Royals, who have a low-ranked offense in terms of home runs. However, Marsh's ability to handle high-strikeout teams may pose a challenge for the Mariners, who rank second in strikeouts. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, and it will be an exciting matchup to watch. The Mariners will look to continue their above-average season, while the Royals aim to maintain their strong performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Alec Marsh's 2501-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 94th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Massey's footspeed has dropped off this season. His 27.27 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.77 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Woo to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Despite posting a .386 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Josh Rojas has experienced some positive variance given the .088 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .298.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.84 Units / 15% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+13.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.68 vs Seattle Mariners 4.38

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