Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros Pick For 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in a close race for playoff positioning. The Astros, with a record of 74-62, are slightly trailing the Royals at 75-62, indicating a tightly contested matchup. This game marks the fourth in the series, a crucial stretch that could shift the momentum for either team.

In their last outing, the Astros defeated the Royals by a score of 5-2. Today, the focus will be on the starting pitchers: Ronel Blanco for the Astros and Alec Marsh for the Royals. Blanco, despite being ranked 168th among MLB starting pitchers, features a strong ERA of 3.14, indicating he has been fortunate this season. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing about 2.5 earned runs, but his high walk rate could be a concern against the Royals' disciplined lineup.

On the other side, Alec Marsh has had his struggles, ranking among the worst pitchers in the league with an ERA of 4.67. He’s projected to allow 2.7 earned runs over approximately 4.9 innings, with high projections for hits and walks that could spell trouble against an Astros offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for team batting average.

In terms of batting, the Astros' Yordan Alvarez has been on fire, hitting .435 over his last week with 3 home runs, while Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. has been a standout as well. With the Astros favored at -165 and an implied team total of 4.71 runs, the projections suggest Houston could find a way to capitalize on the matchup, especially if Blanco can limit his walks. With both teams in above-average form, this game promises to be a pivotal moment in the series.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering the 0.84 gap between Alec Marsh's 8.07 K/9 and his 8.91 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see better results the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last year's 90.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Over his last 3 games started, Ronel Blanco has experienced a big jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2226 rpm over the entire season to 2294 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has suffered from bad luck this year. His .295 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .336.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 10th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 121 games (+19.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 37 games (+26.40 Units / 71% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.27 vs Houston Astros 5.02

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