Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/13/2024

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros
  • Shane Baz - Rays

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros on August 13, 2024, the stakes are high, particularly in a tightly contested American League matchup. The Astros currently sit with a record of 63-55, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays, at 59-59, are treading water with an average performance. In their previous game, the Astros dominated the Rays, adding to the momentum as they seek to solidify their position in the playoff race.

On the mound, Tampa Bay is projected to start Shane Baz, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season, posting a 0-1 record with an ERA of 4.30 over six starts. Despite an average performance, Baz's advanced metrics suggest he may be in for a rough outing, particularly against an offense like the Astros, ranked 10th overall in MLB this season. Compounding the challenge, Baz has a relatively low strikeout rate of 20.0%, while the Astros' hitters rank as the 3rd least strikeout-prone team.

In contrast, Houston will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed starter who, while facing challenges of his own with a 5-9 record and an ERA of 4.62, has shown signs of improvement according to the projections. He’s expected to pitch about 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs, with a solid strikeout projection of 6.5 batters.

The matchup seems to favor the Astros not only in pitching but also offensively, where they rank 2nd in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Rays are struggling offensively, ranked 22nd in MLB, which may limit their scoring capability in a game where run production will be crucial. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how these dynamics unfold.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Yusei Kikuchi has relied on his slider 7.8% less often this season (18.2%) than he did last year (26%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Yordan Alvarez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 96.5-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros projected batting order projects as the 5th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the best out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.333) suggests that Jose Siri has suffered from bad luck this year with his .284 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 110 games (+20.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 81 games (+14.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.16 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.89

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