Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Preview – 5/28/2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros

May 28, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Hunter Brown - Astros
    • Luis Castillo - Mariners


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Astros 115, Mariners -135
Runline:Astros 1.5 -185, Mariners -1.5 160
Over/Under Total:7.5 -105


Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Houston Astros - 45%Houston Astros - 46.35%
Seattle Mariners - 55%Seattle Mariners - 53.65%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On May 28, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a record of 29-26, are having an above-average season, while the Astros, with a record of 24-30, are struggling. This American League West matchup promises an exciting game for baseball fans.

The Mariners, playing as the home team, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo, who is ranked as the #32 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Castillo has started 11 games this year and has a Win/Loss record of 4-6. His ERA stands at an impressive 3.31, suggesting that he has been performing exceptionally well this season.

On the other hand, the Astros will send right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown to the mound. Brown, an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings, has started 9 games this year and holds a Win/Loss record of 1-5. However, his ERA is quite high at 7.06, indicating a challenging season for him. Nevertheless, his 4.20 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the upcoming games.

The Mariners' offense ranks as the #24 best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and an average number of home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Astros' offense is ranked as the #3 best in MLB, boasting a strong lineup with a high team batting average and a good number of home runs.

Both teams have bullpen rankings of #24 and #16, respectively, according to our Power Rankings. This indicates that the Mariners' bullpen is weaker compared to the Astros', which could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

In their last game, the Mariners played against an unknown opponent, while the Astros faced off against another unidentified team. The Mariners' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Dylan Moore, who has shown consistency and power at the plate. The Astros' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Mauricio Dubon, who has displayed a strong batting average and on-base percentage.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, the betting markets expect a low-scoring game. The Mariners are favored with a moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% chance of winning, while the Astros have a moneyline of +110, suggesting a 46% chance of victory.

As the Mariners and the Astros take the field, all eyes will be on the pitching matchup between Luis Castillo and Hunter Brown. Can Castillo's exceptional performance counter the Astros' potent offense? Only time will tell in this exciting American League West showdown.


Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this game.

  • A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.


Hitting from the same side that Luis Castillo throws from, Jose Altuve has a tough challenge in today's matchup.

  • Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.


Houston Astros batters jointly rank near the cellar of MLB since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) as it relates to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.


Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.


Game Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+6.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 39 games (+18.90 Units / 30% ROI)


Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.76 vs Seattle Mariners 3.82

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+107
26% HOU
-126
74% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/+105
4% UN
7.5/-125
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-205
19% HOU
-1.5/+170
81% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
HOU
Team Stats
SEA
3.79
ERA
3.72
.237
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.26
WHIP
1.18
.289
BABIP
.287
8.7%
BB%
7.0%
24.0%
K%
24.6%
75.3%
LOB%
72.3%
.251
Batting Avg
.237
.417
SLG
.403
.740
OPS
.719
.324
OBP
.315
HOU
Team Records
SEA
17-18
Home
23-11
14-19
Road
16-19
24-23
vRHP
26-23
7-14
vLHP
13-7
8-21
vs>.500
11-15
23-16
vs<.500
28-15
6-4
Last10
7-3
10-10
Last20
12-8
17-13
Last30
18-12
H. Brown
L. Castillo
125.1
Innings
143.1
22
GS
24
9-8
W-L
8-7
4.16
ERA
3.14
9.91
K/9
10.23
2.80
BB/9
2.26
1.22
HR/9
1.44
73.5%
LOB%
78.5%
19.5%
HR/FB%
14.7%
3.93
FIP
3.92
3.30
xFIP
3.61
.257
AVG
.209
26.5%
K%
28.2%
7.5%
BB%
6.2%
3.58
SIERA
3.53

H. Brown

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

L. Castillo

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/1 PIT
Crowe N/A
L2-9 N/A
5.1
6
1
1
5
3
59-94
9/23 WSH
Corbin N/A
L2-3 N/A
6
6
2
2
6
3
72-105
9/17 LAD
Buehler N/A
W3-1 N/A
6.1
5
0
0
10
2
72-111
9/11 STL
Mikolas N/A
L4-6 N/A
7
8
4
4
5
1
64-101
9/5 DET
Mize N/A
L1-4 N/A
6
4
3
1
7
2
60-91

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
+106
-126
+107
-126
+110
-130
+105
-125
+110
-130
+110
-130
+105
-124
+108
-127
+115
-135
+105
-125
+115
-135
+105
-125
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
+1.5 (-204)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-204)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+170)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (+101)
7.5 (-123)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-107)
7.5 (-113)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (+110)
7.5 (-130)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)