Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros
  • Nick Sandlin - Guardians

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Houston Astros at Progressive Field on September 29, 2024, both teams are vying for postseason relevancy. The Guardians, enjoying a solid season with a 92-69 record, are looking to bounce back after a narrow 4-3 loss to Houston yesterday. The Astros, sitting at 88-73, continue to push through an above-average season and are likely focused on making a strong final impression before the playoffs.

Today's pitching matchup might lean in favor of the Guardians, despite some unconventional decisions on the mound. Cleveland is opting to start Nick Sandlin for the third consecutive day, a pitcher who has predominantly worked out of the bullpen. While Sandlin maintains a strong win-loss record of 8-0 and a respectable 3.75 ERA, his lack of starting experience could pose challenges. Projected to pitch just 1.0 inning, Sandlin will need to rely on his team's strong bullpen, ranked 6th according to advanced Power Rankings, significantly better than their 19th overall offensive ranking.

The Astros will counter with Ryan Gusto, whose struggles this season place him among the lower tier of major league pitchers. Gusto's projected 4.8 innings could expose him to Cleveland’s opportunistic bats, especially considering his high projections for hits and walks allowed. Houston's offensive strength, defined by a high team batting average and ranking 8th overall, may need to carry the load today.

While betting markets favor Cleveland with a -185 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Houston a slightly more favorable 43% win probability, 6% higher than implied odds suggest. This underlines the potential value in backing the Astros, given their resilience and recent success against the Guardians. With both teams eyeing playoff positioning, this matchup promises intensity and intrigue for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Jon Singleton has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 82.8-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros (19.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among all the teams today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Houston (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+15.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 144 games (+19.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.19 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.56

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