Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On September 4, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Houston Astros in the second game of their interleague series at Great American Ball Park. The Reds find themselves in a tough spot with a 66-73 record, marking a below-average season, while the Astros hold a stronger 75-63 record, reflecting their above-average performance this year.

The Reds, who have struggled recently, last played a game where they fell short against the Astros, showcasing their ongoing challenges. Meanwhile, the Astros' offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranked 2nd in MLB for team batting average, which speaks to their consistency at the plate. Yordan Alvarez has been their standout hitter recently, boasting a remarkable .478 batting average and an impressive 1.712 OPS over the past week.

Nick Martinez, projected to start for the Reds, has been a mixed bag this season, with a 3.78 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 6-6. However, he is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout Reds offense, which could play into the Astros’ hands. In contrast, Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros has also been average, with a 4.63 ERA and a 7-11 record, but he projects to have an edge against a Reds offense that struggles against well-placed pitches.

While the Astros enter as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, the Reds are priced at +120 as underdogs. With an implied total of 4.81 runs for the Astros and 4.19 for the Reds, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup where the Reds might look to improve their standing by capitalizing on any mistakes from Arrighetti. Overall, fans can expect a competitive game as both teams vie for an important win.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

In his previous GS, Spencer Arrighetti was in good form and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros (19.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to average, Nick Martinez has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -8.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jonathan India has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 122 games (+10.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 137 games (+20.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.43 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.18

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