Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In an American League West matchup on May 25, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will face the Houston Astros at Oakland Coliseum. The Athletics, with a disappointing record of 21-32 this season, will hope to turn their fortunes around against the Astros, who are having a below-average season with a record of 23-28.

The Athletics are projected to send left-handed pitcher JP Sears to the mound, while the Astros will counter with right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti. Sears, ranked as the 197th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a record of 3-3 this season with an ERA of 4.31. Arrighetti, on the other hand, has struggled with an ERA of 7.16, although his 4.15 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

The Athletics are coming off a loss to the Astros in their last game, where they fell 6-3. They were considered big underdogs in that matchup, as evidenced by their closing Moneyline price of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%. The Astros were the favorites to win with a closing Moneyline price of -170 and an implied win probability of 62%.

Offensively, the Athletics have struggled this season, ranking 21st in MLB. They have been particularly weak in team batting average, ranking last in the league. However, they have shown some prowess in stolen bases, ranking 5th in MLB. The Astros, on the other hand, boast the 4th best offense in MLB. They have been solid in team batting average, ranking 14th, and have displayed power with a 9th place ranking in team home runs.

With the Athletics having a below-average bullpen ranking at 27th, they will need a strong performance from Sears to keep the Astros' offense at bay. However, Sears, who is a low-strikeout pitcher, might face a challenge against the Astros, who are one of the teams with the fewest strikeouts in MLB.

According to the projections, the Athletics are considered underdogs for this game, with a projected win probability of 44%. The Astros, on the other hand, are the favorites with a projected win probability of 56%. Based on the current odds, the Athletics have an average implied team total of 3.94 runs, while the Astros have a high implied team total of 4.56 runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti has posted a 12.2% Swinging Strike percentage this year, placing in the 75th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Mauricio Dubon's quickness has declined this year. His 28.14 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jon Singleton pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brent Rooker's true offensive skill to be a .332, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .059 deviation between that mark and his actual .391 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Oakland Athletics have 7 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, J.D. Davis, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Seth Brown).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jon Singleton has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 28 games (+8.90 Units / 32% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.06 vs Oakland Athletics 4.14

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