Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Pick For 7/22/2024

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Hogan Harris - Athletics

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics host the Houston Astros on July 22, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum, there's a clear contrast in each team's season performance. The Athletics, struggling with a 39-62 record, face an uphill battle, while the Astros, sitting at 52-47, are having a respectable season and eyeing playoff positioning within the American League West.

The Athletics will send left-handed pitcher Hogan Harris to the mound. Harris has started 8 games this season, boasting a 3.40 ERA. However, his 5.23 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and might see regression. Harris, who is a low-strikeout (17.0 K%) and high-walk (11.2 BB%) pitcher, will face an Astros offense that ranks 10th in MLB and has the best team batting average. Their offense's ability to avoid strikeouts (3rd least in MLB) could prove challenging for Harris, limiting his effectiveness.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who has endured a mixed season with a 5.63 ERA over 17 starts. His 4.35 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. The Athletics’ lineup, ranked 20th in offense, 28th in batting average, but 4th in home runs, offers a peculiar mix of power and inconsistency at the plate. Arrighetti's average projections—5.1 innings, 2.4 earned runs, and 5.6 strikeouts—suggest he might manage to keep the Athletics' bats in check.

Bullpen strength further tilts the scales in favor of the Astros. Their bullpen ranks 4th, whereas the Athletics’ bullpen sits at an average 15th. Considering the Athletics' overall struggles and the significant differences in team offense and bullpen strength, it's no surprise that the Astros are favored with a -145 moneyline, reflecting a 57% implied win probability. The Athletics hold a +125 moneyline with a 43% implied win probability.

While the Athletics have shown flashes of power at the plate, the Astros' more consistent and rounded offense, combined with a superior bullpen, gives them the edge in this matchup. Fans and bettors alike will be keen to see if the Athletics can defy the odds and leverage their home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

With a 0.98 discrepancy between Spencer Arrighetti's 10.46 K/9 and his 9.48 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to perform worse in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

In his last outing, Hogan Harris wasn't on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 0 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Shea Langeliers has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brent Rooker ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 59 games (+15.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.16 vs Oakland Athletics 4.36

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