Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Pick For 5/26/2024

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Aaron Brooks - Athletics

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In a matchup between American League West rivals, the Oakland Athletics will host the Houston Astros at Oakland Coliseum on May 26, 2024. The Athletics will look to bounce back from a terrible season with a record of 22-32, while the Astros aim to improve upon their bad season with a record of 23-29.

The game will feature a pitching duel between the Athletics' right-handed pitcher Aaron Brooks and the Astros' right-handed pitcher Ronel Blanco. Brooks, who has started two games this year, has struggled with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.15. Despite his above-average ERA, his 4.67 xFIP suggests that his performance is likely to decline going forward. On the other hand, Blanco has started eight games and boasts an impressive 4-0 record with an ERA of 2.09. However, his 4.19 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate and may regress in future outings.

The Athletics offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 21st best in MLB. They particularly struggle with team batting average, ranking last in the league. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in MLB. In contrast, the Astros offense has been one of the best in MLB, ranked 3rd overall. They have displayed power with a strong team home run ranking of 9th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Athletics rank near the bottom of the league at 27th, while the Astros sit at a more average position of 13th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. These rankings serve as estimates of underlying talent regardless of year-to-date performance.

Based on the current odds, the Athletics enter the game as big underdogs with a current moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%. In contrast, the Astros are the favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%.

With the Astros boasting a strong offense and Blanco's impressive performance, they have the advantage heading into this game. However, Brooks' ability to minimize strikeouts may provide an opportunity for the low-strikeout Astros offense to capitalize.

The Game Total for today's matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. Ultimately, the Athletics will need to rely on their strengths in stolen bases to overcome the Astros' offensive firepower.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of being matched up with 6 same-handed hitters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Oakland's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jon Singleton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Oakland Athletics.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 7 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daz Cameron, Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Seth Brown, Brent Rooker, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+6.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.5 vs Oakland Athletics 4.2

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