Houston Astros at New York Mets Prediction For 6/28/2024

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and Houston Astros, both hovering around .500 this season, are set to kick off an intriguing interleague series on June 28, 2024, at Citi Field. With each team looking to gain momentum and improve their standings, this game could be pivotal for either squad.

The Mets, sitting at 39-39, have had an average season so far. They turn to left-hander Jose Quintana, who carries a 2-5 record and a 4.98 ERA across 15 starts this year. Quintana's performance has been shaky, as evidenced by his ranking as the 176th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Though projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, Quintana's low strikeout rate (17.2%) might be a disadvantage against the Astros, who are the 1st in MLB in terms of least strikeouts.

On the flip side, the Astros, with a 40-40 record, are also eyeing a turnaround. They will send right-hander Ronel Blanco to the mound. Blanco has been more effective with a 7-2 win/loss record and an impressive 2.43 ERA in 13 starts. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate and may regress. Blanco is projected to pitch just 4.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which could spell trouble against the Mets’ powerful offense, ranked 4th in team home runs this season.

Offensively, the Astros boast the 1st best team batting average and are ranked 6th overall in MLB, showcasing their depth and consistency at the plate. The Mets aren't far behind, ranked 8th in team batting average and 11th overall. Francisco Alvarez has been a standout for New York recently, hitting .571 with an astounding 2.143 OPS over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Chas McCormick has been hot for Houston, hitting .364 with a 1.273 OPS in the same period.

Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack, with the Mets ranked 14th and the Astros 16th in Power Rankings. This game is projected to be closely contested, with the betting markets slightly favoring Houston. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mets a 54% win probability, suggesting there may be value in betting on New York.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (62.4% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Mauricio Dubon has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .322 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all the teams today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Francisco Alvarez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The New York Mets projected batting order grades out as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+18.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.80 Units / 24% ROI)

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.36 vs New York Mets 4.52

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