Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros
  • Samuel Aldegheri - Angels

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 13, 2024, they do so knowing that they are not in contention for a playoff spot, having struggled significantly this season with a record of 60-86. In contrast, the Astros sit at 78-68 and are enjoying an above-average year, currently positioned for a playoff chase.

In their last matchup, the Angels played but did not secure a win. Samuel Aldegheri, projected to start for the Angels, has only two starts this year, with a 1-1 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA. However, his 6.16 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from good fortune, indicating potential regression ahead. Aldegheri is a low-strikeout pitcher (19.6 K%) facing a Houston offense that ranks as the 8th best in the league, making this a challenging matchup.

Yusei Kikuchi, slated to take the mound for the Astros, boasts an 8-9 record with a 4.31 ERA, which is considered average. With a solid 3.24 xFIP, Kikuchi is projected to perform better than his current numbers suggest. His average projected innings pitched is 5.3, and he is expected to strike out 6.4 batters while allowing just 2.3 earned runs. This gives the Astros a significant advantage over Aldegheri.

The Angels' offense has struggled, ranking 28th in MLB in both overall performance and batting average. Conversely, the Astros' offense ranks 3rd in team batting average, providing them with a strong foundation as they look to capitalize on the Angels' weaknesses. With a low implied team total of 3.57 runs for the Angels versus 4.93 for the Astros, the projections heavily favor Houston in this matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to average, Yusei Kikuchi has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mauricio Dubon has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 83.7-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston Astros hitters collectively rank 26th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Houston Astros have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Samuel Aldegheri in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Stefanic has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .253 rate is a fair amount higher than his .228 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+7.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 145 games (+15.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 38% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.42 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.91

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