2023 MLB Home Run King Futures Betting Odds – Who Will Lead MLB in HRs?

In Major League Baseball, the start of a new season means a clean slate from a statistical perspective. That means that all of the league’s top home run hitters will start the season with zero home runs, and a new opportunity to set records by hitting home run after home run. Here, we look at the 2023 MLB home run king odds and make our prediction on who is going to finish this season at the top of the home run charts.

Stats to Look For When Betting on MLB Home Run King

Which stats are most important when betting on this market? Let’s go one-by-one:

Pull% – Pull% is the percentage of batted balls hit to the pull side as defined by Baseball Info Solutions, which tracks these by hand. There were 2,304 home runs hit in 2020. Of those home runs, 1,386 were hit to the pull side per FanGraphs. That is 60.2% of the home runs that were hit.

In 2019, there were 3,954 homers hit to the pull side out of 6,776 total home runs. That accounted for 58.4% of the home runs.

FB% – You have to hit the ball in the air more often than not to hit a home run. Line drive home runs are possible. Ground ball home runs are not.

K% – A strikeout is not a ball in play. Guys that hit home runs will strike out, because they are often patient hitters or guys that have big, long swings that generate power, but I try not to focus on guys that are going to fritter away a high percentage of plate appearances.

BB% – Similarly, a walk is not a ball in play. When you add BB% and K% together, those could be a lot of plate appearances without the chance to hit a home run.

HR/FB% – When you hit fly balls, do you generate a lot of home run power? Was there an outlier from the previous season? To that end, did you hit a high percentage of your fly balls out of the ballpark? Guys that hit a lot of ground balls can often carry really high HR/FB%, but not have enough fly balls to support a high home run total.

Barrel% – A Barreled ball has an expected batting average of .500 and an expected SLG of 1.500. The more barrels, the better.

Fly Ball Distance – Give me a guy that is regularly able to hit the ball a long way. Some fly ball guys also hit a lot of pop ups, which are just wasted plate appearances. I’d rather not focus on those.

Hard Hit% – Much like Barrels/PA or Barrel%, you want guys that make a lot of hard, violent contact. Hard Hit% is a measure of the percentage of batted balls hit at least 95 mph.

Park Factor by Handedness – Home games make up 50% of the schedule. Hitters that have good offensive environments are more likely to have success than those that do not. This one is last for a reason because elite power hitters can hit for power anywhere, but I do want to consider the home ballpark in the equation.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Aaron Judge led Major League Baseball in home runs last season, clubbing 62 home runs and grabbing the attention of the baseball world along the way. This season, the question will be whether Judge can sustain the home run hitting pace that he put up a year ago. But 62 is going to be a difficult number to replicate, and Judge could be beaten for the crown of MLB home run king this season, especially now that he has dealt with an early season hip injury that has kept him out of action.

Pete Alonso, New York Mets

Pete Alonso finished a distant third to Judge in the home run race a season ago, hitting 40 home runs in 2022. He is going to be a contender to be the league’s home run leader this season, though he needs to be more consistent with his power numbers. Alonso had three months with nine home runs in 2022, but had multiple months with under five home runs as well, and he needs to smooth out those peaks and valleys to boost his home run totals. Early in the season, he has looked great, though.

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

Last year’s second place finisher in the home run race was Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies. Schwarber hit 46 home runs last season, mainly pulling the ball at Citizens Bank Park. But Schwarber actually hit more home runs on the road than he did at home in 2022, hitting 25 home runs on the road compared to 21 home runs in Philadelphia. That ability to mash on the road will come in handy if Schwarber is to win this year’s home run king honors, though he is off the pace of the top home run hitters early on.

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Yordan Alvarez did not finish in the top-five in the 2022 home run race, hitting 37 home runs. But he missed just shy of 30 games last season, and a full season this year could push him to some massive home run numbers. While he is off to a slow start this season, Jose Altuve coming back this season will result in more runners on base and more pitches to hit as the season wears on.

Who Will Be the MLB Home Run King in 2023?

While the love for Judge in this market is understandable, we will go with Yordan Alvarez to take the MLB home run king honors in 2023. He is the most likely player to exceed his total from last year, and he is unlikely to be intentionally walked as often as Aaron Judge is. Expect Alvarez to hit somewhere around 50 home runs at least to lead the league in big flies.