In Major League Baseball, league’s top home run hitters start the season with zero home runs, and will look to finish the season with the most home runs in the league. Here, we look at the 2024 MLB home run king odds and make our prediction on who is going to finish this season at the top of the home run charts.
Stats to Look For When Betting on MLB Home Run King
Which stats are most important when betting on this market? Let’s go one-by-one:
Pull% – Pull% is the percentage of batted balls hit to the pull side as defined by Baseball Info Solutions, which tracks these by hand. There were 2,304 home runs hit in 2020. Of those home runs, 1,386 were hit to the pull side per FanGraphs. That is 60.2% of the home runs that were hit.
In 2019, there were 3,954 homers hit to the pull side out of 6,776 total home runs. That accounted for 58.4% of the home runs.
FB% – You have to hit the ball in the air more often than not to hit a home run. Line drive home runs are possible. Ground ball home runs are not.
K% – A strikeout is not a ball in play. Guys that hit home runs will strike out because they are often patient hitters or guys that have big, long swings that generate power, but I try not to focus on guys that are going to fritter away a high percentage of plate appearances.
BB% – Similarly, a walk is not a ball in play. When you add BB% and K% together, those could be a lot of plate appearances without the chance to hit a home run.
HR/FB% – When you hit fly balls, do you generate a lot of home run power? Was there an outlier from the previous season? To that end, did you hit a high percentage of your fly balls out of the ballpark? Guys that hit a lot of ground balls can often carry really high HR/FB%, but not have enough fly balls to support a high home run total.
Barrel% – A Barreled ball has an expected batting average of .500 and an expected SLG of 1.500. The more barrels, the better.
Fly Ball Distance – Give me a guy that is regularly able to hit the ball a long way. Some fly ball guys also hit a lot of pop ups, which are just wasted plate appearances. I’d rather not focus on those.
Hard Hit% – Much like Barrels/PA or Barrel%, you want guys that make a lot of hard, violent contact. Hard Hit% is a measure of the percentage of batted balls hit at least 95 mph.
Park Factor by Handedness – Home games make up 50% of the schedule. Hitters that have good offensive environments are more likely to have success than those that do not. This one is last for a reason because elite power hitters can hit for power anywhere, but I do want to consider the home ballpark in the equation.
Home Run Leader Odds
Player | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Judge | +700 | +900 | +1300 | +700 | +1000 |
Alonso | +800 | +375 | +700 | +1000 | +360 |
Schwarber | +900 | +1800 | +2000 | +900 | +1600 |
Olson | +900 | +1400 | +3000 | +1000 | +1700 |
Ohtani | +1100 | +800 | +1100 | +1500 | +800 |
Alvarez | +1100 | +650 | +1000 | +1200 | +650 |
Soto | +1400 | +1400 | +2500 | +1300 | +1600 |
Acuna Jr. | +1400 | +6600 | +8000 | +1800 | +6500 |
Riley | +1900 | +6600 | +5000 | +1900 | +6500 |
Tatis Jr. | +2000 | +2200 | +3000 | +1900 | +2500 |
Devers | +2300 | +10000 | +17500 | +2500 | +10000 |
Guerrero Jr. | +2300 | +8000 | +8500 | +3000 | +9500 |
Cruz | +3000 | +6600 | +6000 | +3500 | +10000 |
Betts | +3500 | +3000 | +5000 | +1000 | +3500 |
Garcia | +4000 | +1200 | +1400 | +3000 | +1200 |
Rodriguez | +4000 | +20000 | +12500 | +5000 | +20000 |
Hernandez | +4000 | +10000 | +15000 | +3000 | +13000 |
Harper | +6000 | +10000 | +10000 | +2500 | +12000 |
Seager | +6000 | +10000 | +10000 | +5000 | +9500 |
Tucker | +6000 | +12500 | +10000 | +4500 | +7000 |
Home Run Leader Pick & Prediction
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
The favorite to finish this season with the most home runs in baseball is Aaron Judge. Judge had one of the most prolific home run hitting seasons two seasons ago, hitting over 60 home runs. But he struggled to follow up on that, hitting 37 home runs in 2023. He should have more this season, but he needs to stay healthy for that to happen.
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
The player who finished last season with the most home runs in MLB was easily Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves. Olson finished the 2023 season with 54 home runs, which was comfortably better than the other players near the top of the home run charts. Those home runs helped the Atlanta Braves to finish with the best record in baseball in the regular season, and Olson will be expected to put up similar numbers this year.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Pete Alonso has become the king of the Home Run Derby, but he has not been the home run king over the last couple of seasons. Alonso needs to finish stronger in the second half of this season than he has over the last few years, both to help his chances of earning this distinction and to give the Mets a chance to make the playoffs once again.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani is on a new team this season, moving from the Los Angeles Angels to the Los Angeles Dodgers. More importantly for his chances of coming out on top of the home run charts, he will not be pitching this season. That added attention to hitting makes him a very interesting option in this futures betting market.
Other HR King Contenders
There are countless contenders to finish this season with the most home runs in baseball in 2024. Vlad Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all have chances to finish this season with the most dingers. But that is just the start of the list of players with a real chance to do it, as this is anyone’s game at this point.
Home Run King Prediction: Yordan Alvarez
To start the 2024 season, we will go with Yordan Alvarez to finish this season with the most home runs in the league. He dealt with some injury issues last year that cut his chances short. But if he can stay healthy this season and the other key pieces in the Houston Astros lineup can do the same, Alvarez has the power to accomplish this feat.
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