October 2nd, 2023

2023 MLB Home Run King Futures Betting Odds – Who Will Lead MLB in HRs?

Jay Sanin

In Major League Baseball, league’s top home run hitters start the season with zero home runs, and will look to finish the season with the most home runs in the league. Here, we look at the 2023 MLB home run king odds and make our prediction on who is going to finish this season at the top of the home run charts.

Stats to Look For When Betting on MLB Home Run King

Which stats are most important when betting on this market? Let’s go one-by-one:

Pull% – Pull% is the percentage of batted balls hit to the pull side as defined by Baseball Info Solutions, which tracks these by hand. There were 2,304 home runs hit in 2020. Of those home runs, 1,386 were hit to the pull side per FanGraphs. That is 60.2% of the home runs that were hit.

In 2019, there were 3,954 homers hit to the pull side out of 6,776 total home runs. That accounted for 58.4% of the home runs.

FB% – You have to hit the ball in the air more often than not to hit a home run. Line drive home runs are possible. Ground ball home runs are not.

K% – A strikeout is not a ball in play. Guys that hit home runs will strike out, because they are often patient hitters or guys that have big, long swings that generate power, but I try not to focus on guys that are going to fritter away a high percentage of plate appearances.

BB% – Similarly, a walk is not a ball in play. When you add BB% and K% together, those could be a lot of plate appearances without the chance to hit a home run.

HR/FB% – When you hit fly balls, do you generate a lot of home run power? Was there an outlier from the previous season? To that end, did you hit a high percentage of your fly balls out of the ballpark? Guys that hit a lot of ground balls can often carry really high HR/FB%, but not have enough fly balls to support a high home run total.

Barrel% – A Barreled ball has an expected batting average of .500 and an expected SLG of 1.500. The more barrels, the better.

Fly Ball Distance – Give me a guy that is regularly able to hit the ball a long way. Some fly ball guys also hit a lot of pop ups, which are just wasted plate appearances. I’d rather not focus on those.

Hard Hit% – Much like Barrels/PA or Barrel%, you want guys that make a lot of hard, violent contact. Hard Hit% is a measure of the percentage of batted balls hit at least 95 mph.

Park Factor by Handedness – Home games make up 50% of the schedule. Hitters that have good offensive environments are more likely to have success than those that do not. This one is last for a reason because elite power hitters can hit for power anywhere, but I do want to consider the home ballpark in the equation.

Home Run Leader Odds

Player
Judge	+600	+600	+600
Schwarber	+1000	+1000	+1100
Trout	+1000	+1000	+800
Guerrero	+1000	+1000
Alonso	+1200	+1200	+900
Guerrero Jr.	+1200		+1200
Alvarez	+1200	+1200	+1000
Riley	+2000	+2000	+1300
Ohtani	+2000	+2000	+1500
Tatis Jr.	+2500	+2500	+1400
Olson	+2500	+2500	+1800
Stanton	+3000	+3000	+2500
Soto	+3000	+3000	+3000
Tucker	+3000	+3000	+2000
Jimenez	+3500	+3500	+3000
Rodriguez	+4000	+4000	+4000
Devers	+4000	+4000	+3500
Buxton	+4500	+4500	+3500
Springer	+5000	+5000	+5500
Ramirez	+5000	+5000	+4000

Home Run Leader Pick & Prediction

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

The player who finished this season with the most home runs in MLB was easily Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves. Olson finished this season with 54 home runs, which was comfortably better than the other players near the top of the home run charts in 2023. Those home runs helped the Atlanta Braves to finish with the best record in baseball this season, and they will look to turn that into a championship in October.

Next Year’s Home Run King Contenders

Next season, there are several interesting options to finish the year with the most home runs in baseball. Shohei Ohtani is expected to be back and able to hit for whichever team he ends up on this coming season. Meanwhile, power hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso will be in the race to hit the most big flies in 2024 as well.