Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 7/20/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers meet at Rogers Centre on July 20, 2024, for the second game of their series. The Blue Jays come into this matchup with a 44-53 record, reflecting a below-average season. On the other side, the Tigers hold a 48-50 record, marking an average performance thus far.

Pitching for Toronto is left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4-8 record and a 4.42 ERA over 20 starts this season. Despite his win-loss record and ERA being less than stellar, Kikuchi's 3.35 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and might turn things around. He's projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allow 2.3 earned runs, and strike out 6.2 batters in today's game. Kikuchi's peripherals indicate that his true talent is better than his surface stats suggest.

For Detroit, right-hander Reese Olson will take the mound. Olson also holds a 4-8 record, but with a far better 3.30 ERA over 18 starts. However, his 3.81 SIERA indicates he might have had some good fortune this season. Olson projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, and strike out 4.2 batters. His ground-ball tendencies (51 GB%) could neutralize Toronto's weak power, as the Blue Jays rank 26th in MLB with only 86 home runs this season.

Offensively, both teams struggle. Toronto's lineup is ranked 21st in overall offensive talent, 20th in batting average, and 26th in home runs. Detroit doesn't fare much better, ranking 24th in offense and 24th in batting average. Both bullpens are near the bottom of the league, with the Blue Jays' bullpen ranked 19th and the Tigers' bullpen 20th.

The betting markets slightly favor the Blue Jays, who are -135 on the moneyline with an implied win probability of 55%. In contrast, the Tigers are at +115 with a 45% implied probability. Given Kikuchi's underlying metrics and the Blue Jays' slight edge in implied win probability, Toronto might have a slight upper hand in this closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson has averaged 93.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Justyn-Henry Malloy has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 83.3-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit Tigers bats collectively have been one of the worst in the majors this year ( 10th-worst) in regard to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yusei Kikuchi's curveball usage has increased by 5% from last season to this one (19.3% to 24.3%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

George Springer has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .298 mark is a good deal lower than his .361 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 66% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.11 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.35

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.