Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/28/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Zach Plesac - Angels

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers square off again on June 28, 2024, at Angel Stadium in what promises to be a closely contested American League matchup. Both teams are struggling this season; the Angels sit at 34-46, while the Tigers are slightly better at 37-44. The Angels won the previous game in the series on June 27, blanking the Tigers 5-0. With both teams looking to gain some momentum, this game is crucial.

The Angels will send Zach Plesac to the mound. Plesac, who owns a 1-0 record and a 4.50 ERA, has been fortunate this season, as his 7.14 xFIP suggests he could regress. His last outing was rough, allowing six earned runs over three innings. Plesac’s high flyball rate (70%) could play to his advantage against a Tigers lineup that ranks 25th in home runs. However, with a projected line of 5.2 innings, 3.1 earned runs, and 3.3 strikeouts, Plesac faces an uphill battle.

Opposing him will be Kenta Maeda, who has had his share of struggles with a 2-3 record and a 6.02 ERA. However, his 4.92 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and might improve. Maeda’s projections are more favorable, with an average of 5.0 innings, 2.7 earned runs, and 5.0 strikeouts. The Tigers' offense, ranked 27th in MLB, could help him get back on track, especially given their poor rankings in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

The Angels’ offense, though average overall, has shown flashes of potential, ranking 10th in stolen bases and 13th in home runs. Taylor Ward has been a standout, particularly over the last week, hitting .333 with a 1.202 OPS. Meanwhile, the Tigers' Riley Greene continues to be a bright spot, boasting a .263 average and .856 OPS for the season.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers have a slight edge with a 53% win probability. Betting markets align closely, with Detroit at a -120 moneyline and the Angels at +100. Given these insights, expect a tight game where the Tigers might just eke out a win, thanks to Maeda's potential for better performance and the Angels' struggling bullpen, ranked 30th in the league.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of all SPs, Kenta Maeda's fastball velocity of 89.5 mph is in the 6th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Colt Keith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher in today's matchup) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Zach Plesac has tallied 12.8 outs per game per started since the start of last season, grading out in the 19th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Zach Neto has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 26 games (+22.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.33 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.74

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