Tigers vs Guardians Game 5 Prediction & Picks 10/12/2024

• Date: October 12, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians

Tigers vs Guardians Game 5 Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 5 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 5 Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field on October 12, 2024, both teams are deep into the American League Division Series, with this being the pivotal fifth game. This is a winner-take-all Game 5, with the series tied 2-2 going into this matchup.

The Guardians are sending Matthew Boyd to the mound, a lefty who has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 2.72 ERA. However, his 3.89 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression. Boyd's projection of 4.4 innings today isn't promising, but his high strikeout rate (27.7 K%) could exploit the Tigers' tendency to strike out (#4 most in MLB). This could be a key factor in keeping the Guardians in the game.

On the other side, the Tigers counter with Tarik Skubal, who has been nothing short of elite. Ranked as the #2 best starting pitcher in MLB, Skubal's 2.39 ERA and an 18-4 record highlight his dominance. However, his 2.89 SIERA suggests some luck in his performance as well. Skubal faces a Guardians lineup that ranks #5 in least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing his strikeout prowess.

Offensively, the Guardians have an edge, ranking 17th overall compared to the Tigers' 25th. Cleveland's lineup, bolstered by speed (#5 in stolen bases), will look to capitalize on any opportunities against Detroit's pitching.

Betting markets imply a close contest, with the Tigers slightly favored at -120. However, with the Guardians' bullpen rated as the best in MLB and playing at home, they have a fighting chance to extend the series. This matchup promises to be a nail-biter, with both teams vying for a crucial win in the postseason.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tarik Skubal to throw 79 pitches in today's outing (most on the slate), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, Matthew Boyd faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Detroit's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Andres Gimenez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 34 games (+17.45 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 87 games (+22.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games (+16.90 Units / 154% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 5 Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.34 vs Cleveland Guardians 3.15

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.