Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium on September 17, 2024, this matchup carries significant implications in the American League Central. The Royals sit comfortably with an 82-69 record, reflecting an above-average season, while the Tigers follow closely at 78-73, also performing well. Both teams are dynamically engaged in the race for post-season positioning, even though the Tigers have already been eliminated from winning their division.

In their most recent outing, the Tigers continued their winning ways. Casey Mize, who has been projected as a below-average pitcher this season, enters with a 4.47 ERA and a 2-6 record over 19 starts. Contrastingly, Royals starter Cole Ragans has emerged as one of the league’s top arms, currently ranked 13th overall in MLB’s Power Rankings among pitchers, boasting a 3.32 ERA and an 11-9 record across 30 starts.

Kansas City's offense has been more potent this season, ranking 12th overall in MLB and 7th in team batting average, compared to Detroit's struggles, ranked 24th in both batting average and runs produced. In addition, the projections indicate that the Royals' lineup can exploit Mize's low strikeout tendencies, especially given their discipline at the plate.

The Royals are favored with a moneyline of -170, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure a win today. With an implied total of 4.47 runs, they look primed to take advantage against a Tiger pitching staff that ranks near the bottom in several offensive categories. As the teams meet for the second game of the series, expect Kansas City to leverage their pitching advantage in pursuit of a crucial victory.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given the 0.47 deviation between Casey Mize's 4.47 ERA and his 4.00 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and ought to see better results going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Spencer Torkelson has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph dropping to 86-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Detroit Tigers have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Parker Meadows, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Riley Greene, Trey Sweeney, Dillon Dingler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this year (94.8 mph) below where it was last season (96 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Freddy Fermin has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .316 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .272 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Kansas City Royals batters as a unit have been among the best in the majors this year (3rd-) when assessing their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games at home (+11.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 64 games (+15.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.65 Units / 68% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.2 vs Kansas City Royals 4.95

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.