Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 Pick & Prediction – 10/7/2024

• Date: October 7, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians

Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 2 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 2 Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers square off in an American League Division Series matchup on October 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in a battle, with the Guardians taking Game 1. This second game in the series has the Guardians hosting at Progressive Field, where they'll look to capitalize on their recent advantage over their AL Central rivals.

On the mound for Cleveland is Matthew Boyd, who, despite an impressive 2.72 ERA over eight starts this season, has been noted for some good fortune in his stats. His xFIP of 3.89 suggests that he's performing better than underlying metrics indicate, but his strength in strikeouts (27.7 K%) could play well against Detroit's lineup, which is prone to striking out often, ranking 6th in that category. Boyd's average projections for this game include 4.4 innings pitched with 5.4 strikeouts, but his tendency to allow hits and walks could be problematic.

Opposing Boyd is Detroit's Tarik Skubal, having a stellar year with an 18-4 record and a 2.39 ERA. However, his peripheral stats show a bit of luck too, with a SIERA of 2.89. Skubal faces a Guardians offense ranked as the 4th least strikeout-prone, potentially neutralizing his strikeout prowess. He is expected to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 1.6 earned runs, but his projections for hits and walks allowed aren't favorable.

Offensively, the Guardians hold a slight edge due to their average ranking (#17) and their ability to steal bases (6th best in MLB), while the Tigers lag with a 25th best offensive ranking and poor power numbers. The Guardians' bullpen also slightly edges out the Tigers, ranked 8th versus 9th in Power Rankings, despite both being strong units.

While betting markets favor Detroit with a -130 moneyline, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees this game as a toss-up, suggesting value might lie in backing the Guardians if they can harness Boyd's strikeout potential against the strikeout-prone Tigers.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers outfield defense grades out as the best among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Justyn-Henry Malloy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Matthew Boyd is projected to throw 73 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+16.70 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 39 away games (+18.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Tarik Skubal has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.53 vs Cleveland Guardians 3.21

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