Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 7/24/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are set to clash on July 24, 2024, at Progressive Field in a critical American League Central matchup. The Guardians, boasting a 60-40 record, are having a stellar season and are looking to extend their lead in the division. The Tigers, with a 50-52 record, are having an average season but remain competitive in their quest for a Wild Card spot.

The Guardians will send Tanner Bibee to the mound. Bibee, who has an 8-4 record with a solid 3.58 ERA over 20 starts, has been a reliable force this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Bibee is ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters on average. However, his projections also indicate a high number of hits (5.0) and walks (1.2), which could be areas of concern.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has been impressive with a 7-5 record and a sparkling 3.13 ERA over 17 starts. He is ranked 32nd among starting pitchers, and his 2.48 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see even better results moving forward. Flaherty is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, with 5.4 strikeouts. However, like Bibee, he is also projected to give up a high number of hits (5.4) and walks (1.7).

Offensively, the Guardians have a slight edge, ranking 12th in overall performance according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. Their offense is bolstered by a solid showing in stolen bases, ranking 10th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Tigers' offense has struggled, ranking 25th overall and 26th in stolen bases.

In the bullpen, the Guardians have a significant advantage, ranked 1st in MLB by the advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Tigers' bullpen, while respectable at 11th, does not match up to the Guardians' elite relief corps.

In their last game, the Guardians' Tyler Freeman has been on fire, hitting .500 with a 1.238 OPS over the past week. For the Tigers, Mark Canha has also been hot, boasting a .400 average and 1.204 OPS in the last seven days.

The Guardians are currently favored with a moneyline of -150, translating to an implied win probability of 58%. With their strong season, superior bullpen, and home-field advantage, Cleveland looks poised to secure another win in this series.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Riley Greene, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has averaged 93.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 46% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+7.90 Units / 21% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.47 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.28

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