Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 7/7/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds

Betting Odds

Moneyline:	Tigers -140, Reds 120
Runline:	Tigers -1.5 120, Reds 1.5 -145
Over/Under Total:	8 -115

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:	Projected Win %:
Detroit Tigers - 56%	Detroit Tigers - 55.27%
Cincinnati Reds - 44%	Cincinnati Reds - 44.73%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers are set to clash on July 7, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in the third game of their series. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Reds holding a 42-47 record and the Tigers at 41-48. Despite their struggles, this interleague matchup presents an intriguing pitching duel.

The Reds will send right-hander Graham Ashcraft to the mound. Ashcraft, who has a 5-4 record with a 5.45 ERA, has been unlucky this season according to his 4.38 xFIP, which suggests he could improve moving forward. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Ashcraft to pitch 5.6 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, and strike out 4.6 batters on average today. These numbers are indicative of an average performance, which aligns with his current ranking of #106 among approximately 350 starting pitchers.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with left-hander Tarik Skubal, who boasts an impressive 9-3 record and a stellar 2.45 ERA. Skubal is currently ranked as the #1 best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite status. Projections have Skubal pitching 5.4 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, and striking out 7.2 batters on average today. His dominance on the mound is a significant advantage for Detroit.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. The Reds rank 23rd in overall offense, 27th in team batting average, and 21st in home runs. Their one bright spot is leading the league in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 26th in offense, 26th in batting average, 21st in home runs, and 28th in stolen bases.

The Reds' best hitter over the last week has been Spencer Steer, who has recorded 5 hits, 6 runs, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a 1.074 OPS in his last 6 games. For the Tigers, Colt Keith has been on fire, notching 7 hits, 5 runs, 4 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a 1.281 OPS over his last 5 games.

With the Tigers favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, Detroit looks to capitalize on their pitching advantage and recent offensive surge from Keith. The Reds, with a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%, will need a strong performance from Ashcraft and continued offensive production from Steer to pull off the upset.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (53.3 compared to 48.1% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball hitters like Riley Greene usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Graham Ashcraft.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Graham Ashcraft’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2478 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2417 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Tyler Stephenson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild, Blake Dunn).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.30 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 70 games (+7.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Graham Ashcraft has hit the Strikeouts Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 53% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.8 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.01

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