Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The September 20 matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards features American League contenders, the Baltimore Orioles, taking on the Detroit Tigers. With the season winding down, both teams are jockeying for playoff positions. The Orioles boast an 85-68 record, driven by strong offensive performances and the standout season of Gunnar Henderson. Meanwhile, the Tigers, with an 80-73 record, look to build on their recent success despite being outclassed on paper.

The Orioles come into this series opener off a 5-3 win against the Giants on September 19, showcasing their ability to capitalize on favorable matchups. The Tigers also enter with momentum, having secured a 4-2 victory over the Royals in their last outing.

On the mound, Baltimore will roll out Corbin Burnes, ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his excellence this season. Despite his impressive 14-8 record and 3.06 ERA, it's worth noting that his 3.62 xFIP suggests some regression might be in store. Burnes is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, with projections indicating a solid performance including 6.2 strikeouts on average. However, allowing 4.7 hits and 1.4 walks could pose challenges against an underperforming Tigers lineup.

Detroit counters with Keider Montero, while the Tigers' 24th-ranked offense will need to step up against a powerful Orioles lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs. Montero will need to keep the ball low in the zone to force as many groundballs as possible to neutralize Baltimore's power.

Betting lines favor Baltimore as a significant favorite with an implied win probability of 64%. Still, the projections indicate only a 58% win probability for the Orioles, suggesting there might be value in backing Detroit as an underdog. The game is set with a low total of 7.5 runs, highlighting expectations for a tight contest.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Parker Meadows is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Anthony Santander has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.9-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 30 games (+17.05 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 32 away games (+19.50 Units / 43% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.8 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.22

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