Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks – 5/17/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants are set to face off against the Colorado Rockies on May 17, 2024, at Oracle Park. As the home team, the Giants will look to capitalize on their advantage and secure a victory. However, both teams have been struggling this season, with the Giants holding a record of 20-25 and the Rockies sitting at 15-28.

The Giants will send left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison to the mound, while the Rockies will counter with right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner. Harrison has started nine games this year, boasting a 3-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.42. However, his 4.40 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges going forward. On the other hand, Feltner has struggled with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 5.20. His 3.85 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve his performance in future outings.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Giants have struggled this season. They currently sit at #23 in MLB, #21 in team batting average, #19 in team home runs, and a dismal #29 in team stolen bases. The Rockies fare slightly better, ranking #17 in MLB, #18 in team batting average, #24 in team home runs, and last in team stolen bases.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Giants possess the #1 ranked bullpen in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Rockies' bullpen ranks #14. This could give the Giants an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Looking at the betting odds, the Giants are favored to win with a moneyline of -165, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. The Rockies, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145, suggesting a 40% chance of victory.

Based on the current odds, the Giants have an average implied team total of 4.18 runs, while the Rockies have a lower implied team total of 3.32 runs. This indicates that the Giants are expected to have a slightly stronger offensive output in this matchup.

Overall, the Giants have the advantage in terms of pitching, bullpen strength, and implied team total. However, the Rockies cannot be counted out, as they have shown flashes of competitiveness. It will be interesting to see how these teams match up in the first game of the series, and if the Rockies can overcome their struggles and surprise the Giants.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Sean Bouchard is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brendan Rodgers has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Colorado Rockies have 8 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Harrison in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mike Yastrzemski may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Chapman, Blake Sabol, Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 45% ROI)
• Elias Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.56 vs San Francisco Giants 3.98

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.