Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/2/2024

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on August 2, 2024, they find themselves in a position of strength. With a record of 59-51, the Padres are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies languish at 39-70, marking one of the worst seasons in recent memory. This matchup in the National League West features the Padres, who boast the 10th best offense in MLB, against a Rockies team that ranks 16th.

The Padres will be sending Randy Vasquez to the mound, who has had a rocky season with a 3-6 record and a below-average ERA of 4.82. However, the projections suggest that Vasquez has been somewhat fortunate, as his expected ERA sits at 6.01, indicating potential struggles ahead. Interestingly, he faces a Rockies lineup that strikes out more than any other team in the league, which could play to his advantage as he is a low-strikeout pitcher.

On the other side, Austin Gomber takes the hill for Colorado. Gomber has struggled this season as well, with a 2-7 record and an ERA of 4.79. He, too, is a low-strikeout pitcher, and he will be challenged by the Padres' ability to make contact, as they rank as the team with the fewest strikeouts in MLB.

In their most recent games, both teams are looking to turn things around, with the Padres eyeing a strong start to the series. Given the Padres' powerful offense, which ranks 1st in batting average and has been bolstered by Bryce Johnson's impressive .667 average over the last week, the odds favor San Diego. The current moneyline indicates a high implied team total of 4.85 runs for the Padres, reflecting confidence in their offensive capabilities against a struggling Rockies bullpen, ranked 23rd in the league.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Over his previous 3 games started, Austin Gomber has produced a significant rise in his fastball velocity: from 90 mph over the whole season to 91 mph of late.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kris Bryant is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Tallying 14.2 outs per start this year on average, Randy Vasquez places in the 10th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Manny Machado has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 21.9% over the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.85 vs San Diego Padres 4.48

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