Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/23/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics will take on the Colorado Rockies in an interleague matchup at Oakland Coliseum on May 23, 2024. The Athletics, who have a record of 20-30 this season, are having a terrible year. On the other hand, the Rockies are also struggling with a record of 15-32.

The Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joey Estes, who has had a rough season so far. Estes has started 2 games, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 9.35, which is considered horrible. However, his xFIP of 4.63 suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner, who has also had a below-average season. Feltner has started 9 games, with a win-loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 5.69. However, his xFIP of 4.05 indicates that he may have been unlucky as well.

In terms of offense, the Athletics rank as the 24th best team in MLB, while the Rockies rank 20th. The Athletics have struggled with team batting average and home runs, ranking 30th in both categories. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th. The Rockies, on the other hand, have an average team batting average but rank poorly in home runs and stolen bases.

Joey Estes, the Athletics' projected starter, is a high-walk pitcher, facing a Rockies offense that ranks 5th in the least walks in MLB. This could give Estes an advantage if the Rockies struggle to take advantage of his control issues.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Athletics are favored with a moneyline of -130, giving them a 54% implied win probability, while the Rockies have a moneyline of +110 and a 46% implied win probability.

Based on the projections and implied win probabilities, the Athletics have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs, while the Rockies have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering the 1.64 gap between Ryan Feltner's 5.69 ERA and his 4.06 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to perform better going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Elias Diaz's speed has declined this year. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.4 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in today's game suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes conceded a staggering 8 earned runs in his last start.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+7.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.13 vs Oakland Athletics 3.81

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.