Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 2, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Peter Lambert - Rockies
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

The Miami Marlins are set to host the Colorado Rockies at LoanDepot Park on May 2, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup. Both teams are having a tough season, with the Marlins holding a record of 8-24 and the Rockies at 7-23.

Edward Cabrera is projected to start for the Marlins, bringing his right-handed pitching prowess to the mound. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cabrera is ranked as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him above average among approximately 350 pitchers. Despite his 5.28 ERA this year, his 2.70 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Cabrera's high-strikeout ability (31.3 K%) could pose a challenge to the Rockies, who have the third-most strikeouts in MLB.

On the other side, the Rockies are projected to start Peter Lambert, who has struggled this season. Lambert is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings, with a 4.67 ERA and a 3.55 xFIP that suggests he has been unlucky. Lambert's high-groundball rate (51 GB%) may work in his favor against the Marlins, who have hit the third-fewest home runs in MLB.

In their last game, the Marlins emerged victorious over the Rockies with a score of 4-1. The Marlins offense, despite ranking as the worst in MLB based on underlying talent, showcased their ability to produce runs. Bryan De La Cruz has been the Marlins' standout hitter this season, while Ryan McMahon has led the Rockies' offense.

The Marlins are currently favored in this game with a moneyline of -155, implying a win probability of 59%. However, THE BAT X projects the Marlins as an even bigger favorite with a win probability of 63%. The Rockies, as the underdog, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. THE BAT X projects the Rockies with a win probability of 37%.

Considering the projections, there may be value in betting on the Marlins, as their win probability is higher than the betting market suggests. However, with baseball's unpredictability, anything can happen on the field, and both teams will be aiming to turn their season around with a victory.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brenton Doyle has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Compared to their .312 overall projected rate, the .291 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Considering that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Edward Cabrera (47.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

This year, there has been a decline in Josh Bell's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 24.97 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 63 games at home (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 away games (+14.13 Units / 37% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 31% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.43 vs Miami Marlins 4.46

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