Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 4/23/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on April 23, 2025, both teams are struggling in the early going of the season, with the Royals holding a 10-14 record and the Rockies at a dismal 4-18. This matchup is particularly important for both clubs, as they look to gain momentum in what has been a tough start. In their last game, the Royals faced off against the Rockies and secured a narrow victory, adding to the Rockies' woes.

The Royals are projected to start Michael Lorenzen, who has had an inconsistent season thus far, posting a 1-3 record with a 4.57 ERA. While Lorenzen’s numbers suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, his ability to limit damage could be tested against a Rockies offense that leads the league in strikeouts. Lorenzen's low strikeout rate of 17.7% may play into his favor, as he faces a lineup that struggles to make contact.

On the other side, German Marquez will take the mound for Colorado. The right-hander is still seeking his first win of the season, sitting at 0-3 with a troubling 8.27 ERA. Marquez's high walk rate of 10.4% could be problematic against a Royals lineup that has shown an ability to be patient at the plate, ranking 6th in the league for the least walks drawn.

Despite their offensive struggles—ranking 29th in MLB in overall performance—the Royals have an implied team total of 4.89 runs for this matchup, suggesting that oddsmakers expect them to capitalize on Marquez's control issues. The advanced projections indicate that this could be a favorable game for Kansas City, especially with their bullpen ranked 25th, while Colorado boasts a much stronger bullpen, ranked 6th.

In a matchup where both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, the Royals will aim to build on their recent success against a Rockies team that continues to search for answers.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

German Marquez's high utilization rate of his fastball (58.7% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Ryan McMahon has a ton of pop (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starters, Michael Lorenzen's fastball spin rate of 2382.3 rpm ranks in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's matchup, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.2% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.30 Units / 55% ROI)
• Drew Waters has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games at home (+5.00 Units / 125% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.34, Kansas City Royals 5.07

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals

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